Bitcoin may be the asset to watch first after the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury injected about $200 billion into the financial system around April 15. In Joe Duarte’s view, Bitcoin reacts to changes in liquidity faster than traditional risk assets, making it a useful signal as markets weigh fresh liquidity against renewed geopolitical tension tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Fed repo operations and Treasury cash movements drew attention
The article says the Fed added nearly $11 billion through repo operations on April 15, while its reserve management purchase program has been supplying roughly $40 billion per month. On top of that, analysis cited in the piece estimates that the U.S. Treasury added about $140 billion to $200 billion over the same period. Using that framework, the combined effect approached $240 billion, even without any formal quantitative easing announcement.
A large part of the Treasury effect was tied to shifts in the Treasury General Account, or TGA. Based on the figures cited, the balance fell from about $837 billion to roughly $697 billion, then rose to about $924 billion on April 15. The article says around $140 billion had already moved into the banking system before tax day, a sign that liquidity conditions had loosened before the rebound in risk assets became obvious.
The $80,000-$85,000 Bitcoin zone is the next test
Duarte argues that Bitcoin’s move after clearing $75,000 matters more than the action in equities. He points to the $80,000 to $85,000 range as a near-term test. His reading of volume-by-price data suggests resistance there is relatively thin, because the previous decline did not create a strong support base in that band.
If Bitcoin fails in that area, the article links it to two possible messages. One is weak conviction behind the rebound. The other is that the liquidity wave may be fading faster than expected. It also says that if roughly $200 billion in bank reserves is absorbed within a few weeks, that could indicate pressure building elsewhere, including in private credit. On the downside, $70,000 to $75,000 is presented as the main support zone.
Sentiment gauges improved, but risk has not disappeared
The piece also tracks several cross-market indicators. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index closed at 68 on April 17, 2026, while CoinMarketCap’s crypto fear and greed reading stood at 59. The CBOE put/call ratio was 0.65, with the index options ratio at 0.82. VIX closed at 17.48, though the article notes that a move back above 20 remains possible if hedging demand rises again.
Financial conditions were also cited as a supportive factor. The National Financial Conditions Index posted -0.47 for March 27, 2026, compared with -0.44 a week earlier, indicating easier conditions. At the same time, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slipped below 4.3%. Duarte’s core argument is simple: markets are now being pulled by two forces at once, looser liquidity on one side and renewed Iran-related risk on the other, and Bitcoin may show which side is winning before other assets do.