CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr has reported that Bitcoin is once again testing the February low near the $62,000 level. On-chain data shows that the 7-day net realized loss has climbed to approximately $7 billion. This figure not only exceeds the loss recorded when prices hit the February low but remains below the peak of about $14 billion seen during the winter market panic. The net realized loss metric measures the actual loss incurred when coins move on-chain relative to their last transacted price, and its sharp rise signals that a significant number of market participants are capitulating at a loss.
Axel Adler Jr stressed that, unlike the capitulation event in February, the current sell-side pressure has not diminished as the price approaches the low; instead, it has intensified. Typically, after sharp declines, selling pressure tends to exhaust itself, but this time the trend is different, indicating stronger capitulation pressure. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has yet to show any signs of a rapid rebound, and the persistently heavy selling creates considerable uncertainty for the short-term outlook.
$54,000: A Critical Cost Basis for Bulls
According to Axel Adler Jr, as long as Bitcoin holds above $54,000, the market has not yet entered a full-blown capitulation phase. The $54,000 level corresponds to Bitcoin’s average realized price—the average cost at which all coins last moved on-chain—often considered the aggregate cost basis of the market. If Bitcoin definitively breaks below the February low and continues to trade beneath that level, the price could further descend toward the $54,000 network-wide cost support zone. Historically, the realized price tends to act as a psychological and financial barrier during bear markets, as investors often refrain from selling at or near their cost basis.
The Ultimate Line of Defense: $49,000 and Long-Term Holder Cost Zone
At present, Bitcoin’s trading price has fallen well below the short-term holder (STH) cost basis of around $76,000 (STH generally refers to entities holding coins for less than 155 days), putting recent buyers deep underwater. Axel Adler Jr pointed out that if the downtrend continues, the only major supports left are the aforementioned average realized price of $54,000 and the long-term holder (LTH, coins held for more than 155 days) cost basis near $49,000. Historical cycle data indicates that these two price zones have repeatedly coincided with full capitulation phases and the formation of cycle bottoms. Should the $54,000 defense fail, it could pave the way for a sell-off that pushes the price toward the $49,000 region, triggering broader liquidations and panic selling.