Bitcoin's latest sell-off appears to have been driven mainly by underwater holders rather than long-term investors taking profits. Citing URPD data, on-chain analyst Murphy said BTC fell from $97,000 on Jan. 15 to $73,000 by Feb. 4, while coins bought above $80,000 were sold in large size during the decline.
Over 611,000 BTC in loss-making supply changed hands
URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution, maps the last on-chain transfer price of circulating Bitcoin and is commonly used to track cost basis across the market. Using $10,000 price bands, Murphy found that profitable supply below the market dropped by 67,008 BTC, or 9.7% of the total reduction. Loss-making supply above the market fell by 611,324 BTC, accounting for 88%.
The split matters. It suggests holders still sitting on gains were selling less into weakness, while the bulk of the pressure came from buyers trapped at higher levels. In just 20 days, more than 600,000 BTC in underwater supply was reduced, pointing to aggressive exits from positions opened near the top.
Heavy buying emerged between $70,000 and $80,000
The data also shows clear absorption on the way down. Both the $80,000 to $90,000 and $70,000 to $80,000 bands recorded strong buying, with the lower range standing out. Net purchases there reached 450,413 BTC, almost twice the amount seen in the higher band.
That pattern points to active accumulation as price fell. Rather than a straight collapse in market structure, the URPD shift shows supply changing hands across lower cost zones. The dense ownership bands moved lower, from $100,000 to $90,000, then to $80,000 and $70,000, but not in a sudden vacuum.
An extra 14,188 BTC reflected new issuance
Murphy also highlighted a separate detail in the chart totals. The tracked coin count was 16,184,047 on Jan. 15, 2026, rising to 16,198,235 on Feb. 4. The difference, 14,188 BTC, came from Bitcoin's issuance schedule. Miners continued producing new blocks during the sell-off, with each block carrying a reward of 3.125 BTC.
That means new supply kept entering the market even as sentiment weakened. The result was a two-sided reset in positioning: trapped holders sold into the decline, while buyers absorbed coins lower down, especially in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.