Bitcoin’s months-long wave of selling appears to be easing after the asset fell 28% so far this year, according to analysts who cited price behavior, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows and on-chain data as signs that panic-driven selling is fading.
They also warned that the market still lacks enough spot demand to support a stronger move higher. If buying interest stays weak, Bitcoin may remain stuck in a range in the near term instead of moving straight into a new bull cycle.
Bitcoin held up as geopolitical tensions rose
The first signal came from Bitcoin’s resilience during a period of higher geopolitical risk.
According to the report, tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified over the weekend, while oil prices moved higher on concern over a worsening situation in the Middle East. Bitcoin, however, did not see a sharp decline. That stood in contrast to March and April, when the cryptocurrency tended to weaken alongside rising oil prices and renewed tension between the two countries.
Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, said Bitcoin held the $62,000 level even as the U.S. military carried out airstrikes and markets worried about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In his view, that suggests weaker hands have largely been flushed out. The term refers to investors with lower risk tolerance who are more likely to sell in panic during volatile moves.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped an eight-week outflow streak
A second signal came from fund flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The products recorded $197.4 million in net inflows last week, ending eight straight weeks of outflows. De Maere said one week of data is not enough to confirm a long-term trend, but it does indicate that the marginal seller is becoming less important in the market.
That term describes investors who continue to sell even as prices fall and profits shrink. As those sellers step back, overall pressure on the market tends to ease, and fewer holders appear willing to sell Bitcoin at current levels.
Dessislava Ianeva, an analyst at crypto lending platform Nexo, made a similar point. She said ETF flows over the past 10 days alternated between net inflows and net outflows, but the broader picture had shifted to a slight net inflow, with sentiment improving from recent weeks.
On-chain selling cooled, but spot buyers remain limited
On-chain data pointed in the same direction.
Citing Glassnode data, Ianeva said average daily spot selling reached 2,000 BTC in June, then dropped sharply to just 53 BTC per day in July, making it the calmest month of 2026 aside from April.
Still, calmer trading does not automatically point to a strong reversal.
Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said Bitcoin’s rebound from its yearly low of $57,700 was driven mainly by speculative traders in derivatives rather than by spot buyers.
He said demand for Bitcoin is recovering, but most of it is coming from retail futures trading with a higher speculative tilt, while spot demand remains weak. In his view, long-term capital has not clearly returned. Without stronger spot liquidity, Bitcoin may continue to trade sideways over the coming months.
This week’s key events: CPI and congressional testimony
The report said upcoming macroeconomic releases could shape expectations for interest-rate decisions and risk appetite, which helps explain the market’s cautious stance.
The U.S. is scheduled to release June consumer price index data on Tuesday, giving investors another read on whether inflation is continuing to cool. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is also set to testify before Congress for the first time this week, and his remarks may offer fresh clues on the path of future rate policy.
Those two events are likely to be the main tests for whether Bitcoin’s recent rebound can continue.