A key Bitcoin market indicator tied to recent buyers has slipped into negative territory. The year-over-year growth rate of the realized price for short-term holders — investors who bought within the last 155 days — now stands at -2.4%, pointing to a broader buildup of underwater positions across that group.
Average acquisition cost for recent buyers has weakened
The realized price for short-term holders tracks the average cost basis of Bitcoin acquired over the past 155 days. Its annual growth rate shows whether that average entry price is higher or lower than it was one year earlier. A positive reading suggests new market participants are paying more than the previous year, often associated with stronger participation and firmer sentiment. A negative reading shows the opposite: recent entrants, as a group, bought at lower prices than comparable buyers a year ago, leaving more of them exposed to unrealized losses.
With the metric now at -2.4%, aggregate data suggests the pressure on recent holders is no longer isolated. The weakness is broad enough to show up in the cost basis of the entire short-term cohort.
Earlier negative phases lined up with prolonged weak markets
The article cites a CryptoQuant chart spanning 2015 to 2026. It highlights two earlier periods when the same metric fell sharply below zero: 2018–2019 and 2022–2023. The first followed Bitcoin’s run to its then-record high of $19,783, after which the market entered an extended bear phase. The second came after Bitcoin reached its all-time high near $69,000 and later dropped to lows around $15,500.
Against that backdrop, the current blue band on the chart is not just approaching zero; it has already crossed into negative territory. The report also notes that the indicator sits well below the 140 threshold, a sign that losses borne by short-term holders are materially heavier than in calmer stretches.
Recovery would require demand to return at higher price levels
Historically, negative readings in this realized price growth rate have coincided with fading market momentum and a pullback in speculative buying. Aggregate losses among short-term holders can point to a weaker market structure. That said, analysts cited in the piece do not treat this setup as an automatic trigger for a sudden crash. It has more often reflected a slow deterioration in momentum.
For the indicator to recover, short-term holders would need to start buying consistently at higher levels. That could happen through a rise in Bitcoin spot prices, or through turnover where recent underwater buyers are replaced by new participants entering at higher prices. In both cases, sustained demand at elevated levels is the deciding factor.
Current data shows neither of those conditions has taken shape yet. The metric remains stuck below zero, and its next move will depend on how the broader market behaves in the coming weeks and whether fresh inflows can absorb the existing losses carried by short-term holders.