Bitcoin gave back its relief rally after the Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone, falling from $66,315 to as low as $64,103. The drop has put the market back on watch around the $64,000 area, which many traders now see as the key near-term support. If that level breaks, attention shifts back toward the June lows and the broader $60,000 zone.
Data cited by crypto.news showed BTC reaching its intraday high on June 17 before reversing sharply into early June 18 trading. The move came after the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% but surprised markets by projecting additional rate hikes in 2026. That signal quickly outweighed the earlier risk-on move that had followed reports of a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement.
Before the Fed announcement, traders had reacted positively to signs that Washington and Tehran were moving toward a framework that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease pressure on global energy markets. Oil had already retreated from recent highs, helping risk assets recover. Bitcoin’s push above $66,000 also forced out bearish positions, with more than $150 million in short liquidations recorded during the move.
ETF Outflows and Weak Spot Demand Keep Pressure on the Market
Beyond macro headlines, institutional demand remains soft. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted net outflows over recent weeks, removing a source of structural demand that had supported earlier rallies. At the same time, capital has been rotating into traditional risk assets, especially AI-linked equities and newly listed high-growth names such as SpaceX, which have attracted notable speculative interest from institutional investors.
Analyst Ardi said the current rebound resembles the setup seen before Bitcoin’s earlier decline from $83,000. He pointed to rising perpetual futures activity while spot demand stays near cycle lows, suggesting the recent recovery has been driven more by leverage than by fresh capital entering the market. In his view, if spot volume does not catch up, the rally could end in a similar way.
Heavy Leverage Between $64,500 and $65,000 Raises Volatility Risk
On the technical side, the daily rebound stalled almost exactly near $64,230, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the May peak at $82,939 to the June low near $59,136. The higher 61.8% retracement sits near $68,229, leaving the $68,000 to $69,000 range as the main resistance zone if buyers regain control.
Momentum signals remain mixed. Daily MACD has started to recover from deeply negative territory, but its histogram is still below levels usually associated with a trend reversal. Daily RSI remains under 40, showing bearish momentum is still dominant. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has pulled back to retest an ascending trendline that has held since the June 5 low. Price also remains below Supertrend resistance near $67,113. BTC is currently trading only slightly above Supertrend support around $64,500, leaving the market at a sensitive technical junction.
Derivatives positioning adds another layer of risk. CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show one of the largest nearby liquidity clusters between $64,500 and $65,000, where leveraged longs built positions during the latest rebound. Once Bitcoin moved through that area, the decline triggered cascading liquidations and exposed more liquidity pockets around $64,000.
Loss of $64,000 Could Reopen the Path to $60,000
Several traders now treat $64,000 as the most important short-term support. Analyst Wealthmanager said a sustained move below that zone could reopen the way toward $60,000. Liquidation data supports that view: below current prices, large concentrations of leverage remain visible between $60,000 and $61,000, creating a possible magnet if selling accelerates.
A move back above $66,000 could force another round of short liquidations and return focus to the $68,000 to $69,000 resistance band. Until that happens, traders are left dealing with tighter macro conditions, ongoing ETF outflows, and a derivatives market that still carries elevated leverage.