Bitcoin fell below $67,900 at 22:40 last night, then briefly pushed toward $70,000 around 1:00 a.m. before failing to break through, with the latest price at $69,042. Ether saw a sharper move. After a steep drop at 3:00 p.m. yesterday, it broke below $2,000, rebounded to as high as $2,048 this morning, and was last quoted at $2,026. Compared with Bitcoin’s relatively flat action, ETH has shown much heavier resistance around the $2,000 level.
Glassnode data points to dense supply overhead
According to Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution data, two major supply clusters sit above Ether’s current price. One is at $3,119, accounting for 6.15% of ETH supply, and another is at $2,822, accounting for 5.86%. Those levels suggest a large number of holders bought near those prices and are now underwater. If ETH rebounds into those zones, selling from holders looking to exit at break-even could make upside progress difficult.
There is still demand below current levels. The report cited a support area around $1,881, where roughly 1.58 million ETH are clustered. That may offer some near-term support, but it does not remove the weight of the supply sitting above the market. For now, the structure looks more like a contested range than a clean recovery.
Exchange outflows rose, but price has not responded
On-chain data also showed Ether recording its largest exchange withdrawal wave since October 2025, with net outflows of more than 220,000 ETH. Binance alone saw about 158,000 ETH leave in a single day, the biggest daily outflow there since August last year. Exchange outflows are often read as a supportive signal, especially when traders move coins off-platform.
Still, MNCapital founder Michaël van de Poppe said price tends to lag changes in network fundamentals and market narratives. Over the past 18 months, stablecoin trading volume has risen by about 200%, while ETH has fallen roughly 30%. That gap suggests stronger network activity has not yet translated into stronger price action in the short run.
Long liquidation risk remains a key pressure point
Derivatives data adds another layer of downside risk. The liquidation heatmap cited in the report shows between $4 billion and $6 billion in long liquidation liquidity stacked in the market. On the other side, short liquidity above $3,000 exceeds $12 billion. In a market that tends to move toward pockets of liquidity, that setup leaves room for a downside sweep before any broader reversal attempt.
Based on that structure, the report identified the $1,500 to $1,600 range as a possible downside test zone. Ether does have support below $2,000, but the combination of overhead supply and liquidation pressure continues to cap the market. The article also said ETH could spend an extended period consolidating between $1,300 and $2,000.