Bitcoin moved below $72,000, putting fresh attention on chart levels that analysts say could define the next stage of the pullback. Data cited from Glassnode’s MVRV price bands suggests downside risk may still be present, while a separate chart analysis argues that the main target from the recent channel breakdown has already been largely met.
MVRV bands place the next major support much lower
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said Bitcoin was trading near $67,180, below both the MVRV average band at $94,163 and slightly under the -0.5 standard deviation band at $72,444. The MVRV model compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value, a metric based on the average price at which circulating coins last moved on-chain, making it a way to judge how far spot price has moved from the network’s historical cost basis.
Within that framework, the next notable support zone sits between the realized price of $53,909 and the -1.0 standard deviation band at $50,726. Martinez said that if current support gives way, Bitcoin could retreat toward that range. His reading is that the drop under $72,000 pushed the asset into a weaker technical area.
The article notes that during sharp corrections in 2022 and 2023, Bitcoin found support near lower MVRV bands more than once. That leaves the $50,000 to $54,000 zone as an important area for traders tracking the current decline. At the same time, price is still above the realized price and the -1.0 deviation band, so the longer-term bullish structure was not described as broken in this analysis.
Channel break target near $61,000-$62,000 is almost complete
A separate view from SuperBitcoinBro focuses on the daily chart. According to that analysis, Bitcoin had been trading inside a rising channel since February. After losing the lower boundary of the formation, the projected pullback target was set at $61,000 to $62,000.
Bitcoin later dropped to $63,869, briefly testing an area just above that objective. SuperBitcoinBro said the reaction landed close to the zone highlighted by the breakdown. He also pointed to the loss of several Fibonacci retracement levels during the sell-off: the 38.2% level near $74,000, the 50% level near $79,000, and the 61.8% mark around $84,000. Those breaks added to the technical weakness seen on the chart.
200-week moving average remains a short-term level to watch
Even so, SuperBitcoinBro did not argue that the market must fall sharply from here. His view was that the main downside objective from the channel break has now been reached in broad terms, which means current chart patterns do not strongly support much steeper declines at this stage. Selling pressure, in his reading, may start to ease in this region.
The analysis flags two short-term support markers: an orange trend line on the chart and the 200-week moving average near $61,600. Taken together, the two technical views leave traders watching two different zones. One sits near $61,600 and the $61,000-$62,000 area, while the lower MVRV framework points to $50,726-$53,909 if current support fails to hold.