Bitcoin retreated toward $65,000 on June 16 after Iran's military accused Israel of multiple ceasefire violations in southern Lebanon since the U.S.-Iran agreement was announced. The geopolitical blow erased earlier gains that had pushed BTC to an intraday high of $66,900, with the price stabilizing near $65,700 at press time, according to crypto.news market data.
The slide interrupted a rally fueled by reports that Washington and Tehran were close to signing a memorandum of understanding that would allow tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil tumbled over 6% to $75.5 a barrel on the deal optimism before the Israel-Lebanon friction flared again.
Fed Meeting Adds to Caution
Traders also focused on the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Markets expect no rate change, but uncertainty surrounds Chair Kevin Warsh's outlook after CPI inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-over-year. Limited risk appetite capped the crypto market's upside.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trying to reclaim the $65,150 horizontal level that acted as support in February and March before breaking in early June. Bulls briefly pushed above it but sellers emerged near $67,000. The short-term structure has improved: on the 4-hour chart, BTC remains above a rising trendline from the June 6 low near $59,200 and has broken a descending trendline that capped prices in late May-early June.
Fibonacci retracements place immediate resistance at $66,400 (61.8% of the $78,100-$59,200 decline). A clean break could expose the 50% retracement at $68,650 and then $70,900. Momentum indicators are constructive: the 4-hour RSI holds above 55, and the Aroon Up indicator dominates the Aroon Down reading, suggesting buyers retain control.
Analysts: $64K Support Critical Ahead of FOMC
Crypto analyst Ardi said defending the $64,000 region is key: "If price holds that level, even after a typical post-FOMC correction, bulls can keep the local structure with a chance to extend the rally." Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, noted BTC is trading between its weekly 200-day moving average and 200-day exponential moving average. "Bulls want to close the weekly candle back above the 200EMA while holding the 200MA as support."
Coinglass liquidation data shows one of the largest pools of leveraged longs sits around $65,000. A break below could expose another concentration near $64,500 and accelerate downside. Meanwhile, short liquidation clusters between $67,000 and $68,500 could act as magnets if momentum returns after the Fed decision.
Geopolitical risks remain elevated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated forces will continue occupying southern Lebanon despite the U.S.-Iran deal, while Iran threatened retaliation if violations persist. Any further deterioration could quickly unwind the market's optimism about the Strait of Hormuz and energy supplies. If the $64,000-$65,000 support zone fails, the near-term recovery structure weakens and focus shifts back to the June low near $59,200. Conversely, a break above $66,400 could open the door to $68,600 and potentially $71,000 as shorts unwind.