Bitcoin SOPR stays above 1 for three weeks, with analysts pointing to an early bull-market recovery

Bitcoin SOPR stays above 1 for three weeks, with analysts pointing to an early bull-market recovery

N
News Editor
2026-09-09 10:55:00
Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, has remained above the break-even level of 1 for three straight weeks since Aug. 19, according to a Cointelegraph report citing on-chain data. At 1.002, the metric suggests that most coins moving on-chain are being transferred at a profit, a condition often associated with broader bullish momentum. Checkonchain said the setup looks closer to an early bull-market recovery than a typical bear-market bounce. The firm noted that in bearish conditions, recoveries back into profit are often sold into, while the current structure is being supported by the SOPR behavior of short-term holders as well. Still, not everyone sees a confirmed trend change. David Puell, ARK Invest portfolio manager and creator of the Puell Multiple, said more evidence is needed before calling a bear-market bottom. He argued that SOPR would need to stay constructive over a longer period, without Bitcoin setting new price lows, before a long-term bearish view can be meaningfully challenged. He also warned that BTC still faces downside risk. The report also noted that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had previously said, based on his own bull-bear cycle indicator, that the bear market was already over.

Bitcoin’s spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, has stayed above the break-even level of 1 for three consecutive weeks since Aug. 19, marking the longest uninterrupted profitable stretch in 2026, according to a Cointelegraph report cited by PANews. The current reading stands at 1.002, indicating that most coins moving on-chain are being transferred at a profit, a signal often associated with broader bullish momentum in the market.

SOPR remains in profit territory

SOPR is used to track whether coins spent on-chain are moving at a profit or a loss. A reading above 1 generally means sellers, on aggregate, are realizing gains, while a reading below 1 points to losses being realized. In this case, the metric has held above 1 since Aug. 19 and has now sustained that level for three weeks, the longest such run this year.

Checkonchain sees a structure closer to an early bull-market recovery

On-chain analytics suite Checkonchain said that in a bear market, rebounds back into profitable territory are often met with selling. The present structure, however, looks more like an early-stage bull-market recovery. It added that the SOPR behavior of short-term holders, or STH, supports that view.

David Puell says more confirmation is still needed

David Puell offered a more cautious take. According to the report, he warned that SOPR needs to remain bullish over a longer period, and that Bitcoin still faces downside risk at current levels.

Puell, an ARK Invest portfolio manager and the creator of the Puell Multiple, said in an interview that more evidence is needed before concluding that the bear-market bottom has passed. In his view, SOPR would need to keep showing profitability while Bitcoin avoids making new lows before that would be enough to shift a longer-term bearish stance. Until then, he said, BTC still carries downside risk.

An earlier call from CryptoQuant

The report also noted that CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju had previously said, based on his own bull-bear cycle indicator, that the bear market had already ended.

This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan.
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