According to 10x Research, Bitcoin may be moving away from its correlation with the S&P 500, as reported by ChainCatcher. The analysis says that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in September because of weak summer employment, Bitcoin and gold could be the main beneficiaries. The report recalls that after the FOMC meeting in late July 2026, bond traders were convinced the Fed would raise rates in September, and market pricing implied two hikes by year-end. However, 10x Research argues that a sudden shift to hiking by the four voters who favored holding rates steady in July would face an excessively high hurdle within six weeks. More important is seasonality: the labor market has historically been soft in summer, which helped push rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup over, similar employment weakness could force bond traders to reassess their hike expectations. If that happens, gold and Bitcoin would both benefit, the firm says.
ChainCatcher reports, citing 10x Research, that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its correlation with the S&P 500. Should the Federal Reserve cut rates in September because of weak summer employment, Bitcoin could join gold as a major beneficiary.
The analysis notes that after the FOMC meeting in late July 2026, bond traders were once confident the Fed would hike in September, with market pricing implying two rate increases by year-end. But the research firm argues the bar is too high for the four voters who favored holding rates steady in July to suddenly pivot to hikes within six weeks.
More importantly, seasonality. The labor market has historically been soft in the summer, which helped drive rate cuts in September 2024 and September 2025. With the World Cup over, similar employment weakness could force bond traders to reassess hike expectations, potentially benefiting gold and Bitcoin.
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