The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs posted a sharp reversal in fund flows on Wednesday, recording $635 million in net outflows, the largest one-day withdrawal since Jan. 29. Over the last five trading days, investors pulled a combined $1.26 billion from the products, cutting total net inflows since their January 2024 debut to $58.5 billion from $59.76 billion a week earlier.
The shift stands out because these same ETFs had attracted $3.29 billion across March and April, a stretch many traders viewed as a key driver behind bitcoin’s move back above $80,000. That support now looks weaker. Bitcoin’s rally from $65,000 to above $80,000 has stalled since last Wednesday, with price momentum fading near the 200-day simple moving average, which sits just above $82,000.
Price stalls near the 200-day moving average
In the past 24 hours, bitcoin has fallen more than 2% to $79,400. The report said analysts linked the drop to renewed inflation concerns in the United States. At the same time, traditional equity markets showed little sign of stress, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reaching fresh highs on Wednesday.
That divergence has made the ETF outflow figure harder to dismiss. Strong inflows in recent months were widely framed as a bullish catalyst, while a hotter inflation backdrop in the U.S. has raised questions about how much support capital flows alone can still provide. Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group, said that a persistently hot CPI reading, a Fed seen by markets as more hawkish under Warsh, or another oil shock could pressure bitcoin even if net flows remain positive. In his view, the key issue is less whether the markup phase continues and more whether macro conditions stay loose enough for fund flows to have an effect.
Flow-price relationship is weaker than before
Even so, the connection between ETF flows and bitcoin price action is no longer as tight as it was earlier this year. A 90-day rolling Pearson correlation between bitcoin’s daily percentage return and the daily percentage change in cumulative net ETF inflows now stands at just 0.16, a level described as statistically indistinguishable from zero. In February, that same measure had peaked at 0.68.
In practical terms, the daily direction of ETF flows may no longer give a clear signal for BTC’s next move. Large redemptions still matter, though, especially when price momentum has already weakened and macro pressure is building again.