Bitcoin recovered from last week's drop toward $59,000 and briefly touched $64,156, but the uptrend failed to sustain. Per crypto.news price data, BTC traded near $63,200 at press time, still locked in a broader downtrend.
Holding $62K ahead of inflation data
Buyers defended the $59,000-$60,000 zone, keeping Bitcoin above $62,000. However, the rally stalled near $64,200, leaving $64,000-$64,200 as the first major resistance. A daily close above $64,200 could trigger short squeezes and open the path toward $66,000. Conversely, losing $62,000 would pressure leveraged longs and shift focus to $60,000.
The market now faces two tests: traders want stronger futures participation to confirm the move's durability, and all eyes are on US CPI on June 10 and PPI on June 11.
CPI and PPI: the next catalyst for risk assets
According to Trading Economics, market consensus expects May CPI to rise to 4.2% YoY (from 3.8% in April), while its own model projects 4.0%. Reuters poll sees core inflation at 2.9%. For PPI, consensus stands at 6.4% (vs 6.0% prior), with the model projecting 6.8%. Higher-than-expected prints could boost Treasury yields and reduce appetite for risk assets like crypto.
The stronger May jobs report already reshuffled rate expectations: the US economy added 172,000 jobs (consensus 85,000), driving the 10-year yield near 4.55% and raising odds of a Fed rate hike by year-end. BNP Paribas sees three consecutive hikes starting December 2026, citing firm employment, persistent inflation, and higher energy costs. Meanwhile, President Trump hinted at a potential Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lower oil prices, though no agreement has been finalized.
A cooler CPI print could help Bitcoin retest $64,200 and ease bond yield pressure. A hot report could strengthen the dollar, lift rate expectations, and send Bitcoin back to support.
RSI oversold, but a bottom is not confirmed
Bitcoin's RSI sits at 28.08, slightly above its moving average of 27.52. A reading below 30 typically indicates oversold conditions, but overbought/oversold signals alone do not mark a market bottom. BTC needs to reclaim resistance and form higher lows to improve the structure. The Bollinger midpoint at $70,369 remains the larger recovery target.
Analyst Ash Crypto noted that BTC fell 14% after leaving an ascending channel last week. He highlighted the weekly 200 moving average: "If the 200 WMA holds, $59,100 could be the cycle bottom. If BTC loses it, the next stop could be $50,000 or lower." He added that past death-cross periods saw corrections above 60%, which would imply a deeper target near $39,000.
Ali Martinez offered a more constructive view: "Bitcoin is about to reach a market bottom." His data showed long-term holders distributed over 50,000 BTC (worth ~$3.25 billion) while 54,000 BTC moved onto exchanges in two weeks, adding to selling pressure. On the buying side, Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC for $101.3 million between June 1 and June 7, raising its total holdings to 845,256 BTC.
For now, Bitcoin needs to hold $62,000 and clear $64,200 to extend the rebound. Failure to defend the range would expose $60,000, $59,100, and the lower Bollinger Band near $58,325.