Bitcoin is trading near $72,000 and remains trapped in a narrow range, unable to break above $73,000 or lose the $70,000 support zone. Independent crypto analyst Axel said perpetual futures funding rates have stayed negative for two straight weeks, while Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to $20.8 billion, a sign that leverage has been flushed out and the market has less fuel for large liquidation-driven moves.
Negative funding rates point to persistent bearish positioning
Axel said the funding rate chart for Bitcoin perpetual contracts shows a clear pattern from February to early March 2026: the metric remained in negative territory for most of that period. Since late January, funding has frequently slipped below zero, and over the last two weeks it has spent almost all of its time there.
The most extreme readings came on Feb. 25 and Feb. 28, when Bitcoin was testing local lows around $64,000 to $65,000. As of March 4, the funding rate was still slightly negative. In practical terms, negative funding means short traders are paying long traders to hold positions, showing that downside bets are outweighing bullish ones in the perpetual futures market.
That setup can lead in two directions. A sharp move higher can force shorts to cover and trigger a squeeze. If price keeps slipping, it simply confirms that bearish positioning was right. Right now, the market does not appear to have a strong trigger for either outcome.
Open interest has been cut in half from its peak
Open interest data adds another layer. Dollar-denominated Bitcoin futures open interest has fallen from a peak of $47.6 billion in October 2025 to $20.8 billion in March 2026, a drop of more than half. Compared with the $32 billion high seen in January, it is also down by about one-third.
As of March 4, open interest stood at $20.8 billion, a level last seen before the 2025 rally began. Over the past seven days, the figure slipped another 3.2%, suggesting deleveraging is still underway even if the pace has slowed.
When open interest falls along with price, it usually signals forced liquidations or traders closing positions on their own. With fewer leveraged positions left in the system, there is less room for cascade liquidations or an aggressive short squeeze. Axel’s view is that the market now looks very different from the setup seen in January, when heavier positioning created more potential for mechanical volatility.
Range-bound price action remains intact
The current picture is awkward for both sides. Bears still dominate positioning, but leverage is much lighter than before. Price is sitting near key levels, yet there is no clear catalyst strong enough to break the deadlock. Based on those signals, Bitcoin may remain stuck around $72,000 until a more decisive technical signal appears.