Bitcoin failed to join a broad risk-on move across global markets, staying below $66,000 even as sentiment improved over the weekend. Reports that the United States and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding raised expectations of lower regional tensions and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, giving equities and commodities a clear boost. BTC did not respond in the same way.
The shift was visible across traditional markets. S&P futures rose more than 100 points from Friday’s close and tested fresh record highs, while crude oil fell under $75 per barrel as traders reassessed energy supply risks. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin’s muted price action stood out.
QCP Capital points to Strategy overhang
QCP Capital said the gap between Bitcoin and other risk assets was tied mainly to uncertainty around Strategy. According to the firm, concerns remain that additional Bitcoin sales by the company, aimed at funding dividend payments, are still weighing on the market.
Strategy, previously known as MicroStrategy, has drawn attention for its Bitcoin-centered treasury approach. The company recently repurchased $1.5 billion of its 2029 convertible senior notes, then raised about $200 million through an MSTR stock sale and used those proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. Those steps improved liquidity, but they also kept investors focused on what could come next.
Cash runway extends to about 7.5 months
QCP Capital said the maneuver extended Strategy’s cash coverage for dividend payments to roughly 7.5 months. That helps in the near term. It does not remove the larger question hanging over the market.
Participants are watching whether that buffer will prove sufficient and what future capital actions could mean for Bitcoin supply over time. If stock issuance slows or if Bitcoin prices fall, discussion around the company needing to sell more BTC to meet obligations could intensify. QCP added that these concerns may ease if Strategy keeps lengthening its cash runway through additional stock sales and the market becomes convinced that dividend payments are fully covered.
Fed policy remains another source of hesitation
Attention is also on the Federal Reserve. The report noted that inflation reached a three-year high of 4.2% during Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first term, a reminder of the difficult policy backdrop. Markets are now pricing in a total 0.5-point rate increase by 2026, with investors tracking the latest Dot Plot and any signal on whether the Fed will keep a tight stance.
QCP Capital’s view was that until the Strategy-specific overhang clears, Bitcoin may keep struggling to move in line with the wider rally in risk assets.