Bitcoin was trading near $64,700 on Monday, but market signals tracked by CryptoQuant suggest short-term pressure has not eased. The Coinbase Premium Index, especially its 30-minute simple moving average (SMA-30), briefly moved back above zero and then failed to hold that recovery into the new week.
CryptoQuant analyst nino said the premium’s inability to sustain the rebound, even after a temporary uptick, may have acted as a trigger for the recent downside in price. That matters because a weak Coinbase premium usually points to restrained demand from traders on the U.S. venue. If the premium cannot stay positive, buying interest may not be strong enough to support a fresh leg higher.
Coinbase Premium Fails to Hold the Rebound
The signal coming from the premium is cautious rather than constructive. A short move above zero did appear, but it faded quickly. That kind of action suggests recovery in spot demand remains limited, and analysts see the index as an early warning sign when market weakness starts to build.
The reading also fits a broader risk-off tone. Without clear demand support, Bitcoin becomes more exposed to swings driven by shifting sentiment and selling pressure. In the near term, that leaves the market vulnerable if traders continue to stay defensive.
Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Draws Attention
Beyond exchange flows, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed to long-term holder behavior as another key signal. He said Bitcoin is drifting toward the pain point for long-term holders, noting that in past bear markets, price moved below this cost basis and triggered a final capitulation phase with realized losses of about 20%.
At present, long-term holders are sitting on an average profit of roughly 74%, while their estimated cost basis stands near $38,900. That level is not fixed. As short-term holders age into long-term positions, the average acquisition price for the cohort rises. The report also noted that structural changes in the market, including participation from institutions, corporations, and sovereign entities, could affect how historical patterns play out.
Two Warning Signals Are Now in Focus
A weak Coinbase Premium SMA-30 and Bitcoin’s movement toward the long-term holder cost basis are now forming a combined caution signal. If selling pressure builds, the market could see a period of sharper volatility. For now, the key issue is not only price direction, but whether spot demand improves and whether long-term holder positioning starts to come under heavier stress.