Analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin trading below the short-term holder, or STH, cost basis for an extended period has been a common feature of every bear market cycle. BTC has now stayed under that level for more than nine months, with the current STH cost basis sitting at $70,700 and continuing to act as resistance. In May, Bitcoin moved back toward that area and briefly approached $82,000 before pulling back.
Darkfost said the STH cost basis has declined noticeably since then, which suggests some investors have been accumulating at lower levels and reducing their average entry cost. Even so, Bitcoin has not yet managed to firmly reclaim that key level. He argued that a sustained move back above the STH cost basis would be the first positive signal for the market.
At present, BTC is trading in a $59,000 to $64,000 range, still well below the $70,700 threshold. According to the analysis, a successful break above and hold over that level would mean short-term holders as a group are no longer underwater, opening the door to a shift from bear-market defense to structural repair. If the level keeps rejecting price, the STH cost basis may continue to fall and the bottoming process could take longer.
BlockBeats reported on July 12 that analyst Darkfost said Bitcoin trading below the short-term holder, or STH, cost basis for a long stretch is a typical feature of every bear market. BTC has remained under that level for more than nine months.
The current STH cost basis stands at $70,700 and has continued to act as resistance, according to Darkfost. In May, Bitcoin tried to test that zone and briefly neared $82,000 before pulling back.
He added that the STH cost basis has fallen noticeably since then, indicating that some investors accumulated at lower levels and reduced their average holding cost. Even so, BTC has not yet established itself above that key line.
The analysis says a sustained reclaim of the STH cost basis would mark the first positive sign. Bitcoin is currently moving in a $59,000 to $64,000 range, still some distance from the $70,700 resistance level.
If BTC later breaks above and holds that level, short-term holders as a group would move out of unrealized losses, and market sentiment could shift from bear-market defense toward structural repair. If price continues to be rejected there, the STH cost basis may keep moving lower and the bear-market bottoming period could extend.
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