Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss is moving toward the 40% to 45% range, and CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu says that reading reflects rising market stress more than a confirmed cycle bottom. In his view, if past patterns hold, the current setup looks closer to an early bear market phase than the final low.
Supply in Loss tracks the share of Bitcoin supply sitting at an unrealized loss on-chain. When the metric rises, more holders are underwater at current prices, and that usually points to a weaker market structure. Woominkyu said the increase shows stress is building, with the present range historically appearing during transitional bear periods or deep corrective stretches.
Past cycles show deeper capitulation often comes later
Historical comparisons add to the caution. In the 2015, 2019, and 2022 market cycles, expansions in loss-held supply showed up during periods of clear strain before major bottoms were formed. According to the analysts cited, large cycle lows have usually appeared only after Supply in Loss climbed above roughly 50%. That leaves open the possibility that Bitcoin has not yet reached a true bottom.
The message from this metric is direct. Stress is rising, unrealized losses are spreading across more holders, and the data does not yet offer a full bottom confirmation.
Short-term holding ratio points closer to undervaluation
CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan offered a more constructive reading based on the 1-week to 1-month holding ratio, a short-term liquidity indicator. He said historical interpretation suggests the market has entered a zone reasonably close to undervaluation. When this ratio falls sharply, Bitcoin has often traded near levels seen around prior bear market lows.
That indicator has now dropped substantially. It is still slightly above the deepest historical readings, but the market is starting to enter a range that may support strategic accumulation. Crypto Dan’s framing is not about calling the exact bottom. It is about distributing risk across more favorable price levels instead of trying to time a single turning point.
Two signals, one market under pressure
Bitcoin is now showing a mixed on-chain picture. Supply in Loss is climbing and signaling early bear market stress, while the short-term holding ratio suggests the asset is getting closer to undervalued territory. The two views are not incompatible: one warns that downside pressure has not fully cleared, and the other indicates that pricing is approaching areas that looked attractive in earlier cycles.
For now, the data stops short of declaring a completed bottom. It shows a market where caution remains necessary, even as some accumulation signals begin to emerge.