Bitcoin’s overall profit picture is improving, but on-chain data still does not confirm that a new bull market has started. The market, according to the analysis, still faces the risk of another pullback.
CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. The indicator tracks the share of BTC supply currently held at prices above cost basis. That marks a clear rebound from the June 30 low of 46.2%, with the metric now approaching 60%.
Key confirmation signals are still missing
The recovery in profitable supply still needs more validation. Based on historical cycles, a bear market is usually considered truly over only when two conditions are met at the same time.
- The 30-day simple moving average of Long-Term Holder SOPR, or LTH-SOPR, stays above 1 and holds there for several weeks without falling back below that level.
- Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit remains stably above 64%.
Those conditions have not been met together so far, which leaves the current move looking more like a recovery phase than a confirmed trend reversal.
This cycle has already seen one false breakout
Analysts said the current cycle has already produced one “false breakout.” From April 28 to June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while Supply in Profit briefly climbed to 67%. The market then pulled back again, showing that a temporary improvement in these readings was not enough to confirm a lasting reversal.
At the moment, the long-term holder 30-day SMA has remained below 1 for more than 50 straight days. That remains an important risk signal when assessing the strength of the market’s recovery.
Whether the rebound becomes a new uptrend is still unclear
In short, Bitcoin’s profitable supply ratio is improving, but the market still needs more confirmation from long-term holder behavior and shifts in profit structure before this rebound can be judged as the start of a new upward cycle.
The analysis was cited from Cointelegraph and republished in brief by Odaily.