Financial markets experienced extreme swings as Washington and Tehran made a diplomatic breakthrough. Bitcoin (BTC) surged roughly 25% in the last 24 hours, crossing the $81,000 mark for the first time in three months. In sharp contrast, Brent crude oil collapsed 11% in a single day, falling to $98 per barrel, as the geopolitical risk premium evaporated.
14-Point Framework Drafted with Pakistan as Mediator
Reports indicate both nations have reached substantial consensus on a preliminary 14-point document. The framework calls for an immediate ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a phased easing of US sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and restrictions on Iran's nuclear program. US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are leading the American side, while Pakistan serves as the key facilitator. A senior Pakistani official said: "We will finalize this very soon. We are very close to the end." Iran confirmed it is reviewing a new proposal and will respond soon through Pakistani channels.
President Donald Trump described the past 24 hours of talks as "very good discussions" and expressed confidence that Tehran is willing to strike a deal. However, he warned that if Iran fails to compromise, any US military response would be "more intense and severe" than before.
Bitcoin Outperforms Stocks; Gold Retreats
The sharp drop in oil prices triggered a broad rally in risk assets. The S&P 500 rose 0.85% to a record 7,366.25. Gold pulled back and bond yields edged lower. Since the onset of the conflict, Bitcoin has returned roughly 25%, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 8% gain, while gold has fallen by nearly 11%.
Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, noted that gold's decline stems from macro indicators, and that Bitcoin along with similar digital assets are now considered part of the "safe haven" basket alongside gold. Historically, diplomatic thaw episodes have triggered oil drops amid expectations of Iran's return to markets and forced gold to retreat. Analysts emphasized that Bitcoin was not previously as correlated to global events; now the growing role of institutional investors and Bitcoin ETFs is shaping market dynamics.
Deal Remains Fragile as Doubts Linger on Both Sides
Despite the euphoria, political hurdles remain. Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei criticized the draft as "more of a US wish list than a realistic roadmap," warning that Iran is prepared for a military response if US concessions fall short. In Washington, officials worry the package does not adequately address key demands — Iran's missile program, support for regional proxies, and stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.
Grant Rumley, an expert at the Washington Institute, told the BBC that similar agreements have repeatedly collapsed at the last minute. Trump also told PBS the US has been close to a deal before, but the final outcome remains uncertain. Investors now await Iran's official response. If both sides endorse the pre-agreement, a 30-day round of detailed talks will follow, covering sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear restrictions. For now, oil and Bitcoin are the market's most sensitive barometers.