Bitcoin surged violently from $65,000 to $70,110 over the weekend before retreating to around $68,500. The sharp rally was triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, with many traders interpreting it as a bottoming signal in the ongoing bear market.
Iran Exchange Outflow Explodes 700% as Crypto Becomes Escape Route
Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported that within minutes of the airstrikes, outflows from Iran's largest exchange, Nobitex, surged over 700%, exceeding $500,000. Hourly outflows briefly hit $3 million. Elliptic co-founder Tom Robinson said the movement likely represents capital flight from Iran, with large sums transferred to overseas exchanges. Nobitex processed over $7.2 billion in crypto transactions in 2025 and has more than 11 million users.
However, Iran quickly imposed strict internet restrictions, cutting connectivity by roughly 99%, which effectively halted further outflows. This highlights a paradox: while crypto offers an escape from traditional banking, extreme internet blackouts can physically limit its use.
VanEck CEO: 'We Are Bottoming'
Jan Van Eck, CEO of asset manager VanEck, told CNBC that despite the market being down over 50% from its highs, he believes a bottom is forming. He noted Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle, with 2026 being the 'fourth year' that often sees sharp drawdowns. VanEck's 2026 outlook report still characterizes this year as a 'risk-on' period, with structural adoption trends unchanged.
Dimon Warns Inflation Could Be 'Skunk at the Picnic'
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned at a Miami conference that if the conflict drags on, inflation could become the 'skunk at the picnic' for the U.S. economy. He said short-term hostilities would only slightly raise gas prices, but a prolonged war would be a different story.
The geopolitical shock has already demonstrated crypto's role as a haven, while the Iran capital flight validates decentralized finance's growing importance. Uncertainty around inflation and war remains, but VanEck's 'bottom' call alongside the market's strong rebound offers room for optimism.