Bitcoin has broken above $76,000 fueled by record leverage, but on-chain data signals mounting risks. According to CryptoComLearn, Bitcoin open interest soared 59% over the past seven weeks, Ethereum saw a 45% increase, and Dogecoin also attracted heavy retail-leveraged interest.
Open Interest Explosion: BTC +59%, ETH +45%
The surge in open interest indicates more traders are taking leveraged positions. While this can amplify upward moves in the early stages of a rally, analysts widely caution that a sudden sentiment shift could trigger cascading liquidations. The crypto market remains highly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical developments, with any negative news possibly sparking a sharp deleveraging event.
Geopolitics and Macro Policy in Focus
Ongoing US-Iran hostilities remain a major headwind. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stressed that a sustained rally is unlikely unless geopolitical uncertainty eases significantly. He noted emerging weaknesses in the US economy could push the Fed back toward easing — historically a strong tailwind for crypto assets, especially high-beta names like Dogecoin.
Former President Donald Trump recently signaled that peace talks with Iran could begin soon, triggering accelerated trading activity as major coins logged fresh gains. Still, Van de Poppe cautioned that the rally remains fragile until a concrete agreement emerges.
Santiment Warns of Liquidation Risk at Record Leverage
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that leverage has climbed to all-time highs alongside price gains. The firm warned that the jump in open positions raises the risk of sudden liquidations. If crowded longs begin to unwind, Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin could see simultaneous sharp declines. Heavy leverage is a double-edged sword — it supercharges rallies but also sets the stage for violent corrections.
Analysts Split on Whether Bottom Is In
Not all analysts share the current optimism. Crypto analyst Colin questioned whether Bitcoin's February low of $60,000 represents a true cycle bottom. He noted that Bitcoin took only four months to drop from its October 2025 peak to that level — much shorter than prior bear markets. Bitcoin has lost roughly 53% from its peak, while historical drawdowns often reached 77%. If Ethereum, Dogecoin and other volatile coins follow historical patterns, further declines may be ahead. According to CryptoAppsy, Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,000.