Bitcoin moved above $78,000 on April 22, trading at $78,389.79 in Taiwan afternoon hours, up 3.19% on the day. Its 24-hour range was $74,821.57 to $78,450, marking the highest level in nearly 14 days. Ether also advanced, with ETH at $2,393.21, up 3.21%.
Danske Bank sees a much larger easing path
The price move came as Danske Bank highlighted a sharp gap between its own outlook and current market pricing for Federal Reserve cuts. In an FX Forecast Update dated April 17, analysts Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen and Jens Peter Sørensen said they expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and another 25 basis points in December, for a total of 50 basis points this year.
LSEG money market data points to a far smaller move. Derivatives pricing reflects only 9 basis points of easing, suggesting traders are barely assigning room for meaningful cuts. The Fed's March dot plot median showed 25 basis points of cuts for the year, leaving Danske Bank's call well above both market pricing and the central bank's own median projection.
The bank had previously expected cuts in June and September. That timeline has now shifted back by one quarter, but its view on the total amount of easing has not been reduced.
Bitcoin breaks out after five days of consolidation
Price action had been building toward this move. Bitcoin fell to a recent low of $70,678 on April 13, then rebounded. On April 17 it touched $77,956 intraday, setting a local high before spending about five days in a sideways range.
The push above $78,000 puts BTC beyond that earlier peak. The source, citing CoinGecko data, said Bitcoin reached a 14-day high of $78,173 at 13:25 Taiwan time. Ether remained about 2.4% below its April 18 peak of $2,451.
Focus shifts to FOMC and repricing risk
The report also pointed to nearby macro catalysts, including a large options expiry on April 24 and the upcoming April 28 FOMC meeting. If rate expectations are repriced, risk assets could react quickly. If Chair Jerome Powell keeps a hawkish tone, that would clash with the renewed optimism visible in crypto markets.
For now, the gap is clear: markets price in 9bp, while Danske Bank expects 50bp. Bitcoin has already moved higher as that debate sharpens, and the next signal investors are watching is what the Fed says next.