Bitcoin is trading near the $60,000 mark as of June 29, 2026, roughly 53% below its all-time high of $126,198 set in October 2025. Both technical indicators and macro conditions are weighing on the largest cryptocurrency, leaving traders focused on a narrow set of support and resistance levels.
RSI inching toward oversold, death cross in play
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, approaching the oversold threshold of 30 but not yet breached. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 36.9, above the 25 threshold, confirming the trend's strength remains robust. Exponential moving averages (EMA) reinforce bearish sentiment: the 50-day EMA sits at $66,913, while the 200-day EMA is around $76,517. Price is below both, and the 50-day EMA has crossed under the 200-day EMA—a classic death cross.
$58,035 support under the microscope
The level of $58,035 has acted as horizontal support during the decline from the June high of $67,253. Buyers stepped in near this zone during Monday's pullback, but repeated tests could weaken it. If it breaks, the next notable support on the daily chart is $55,528, with little in between. On the upside, a recovery would first target the Fibonacci golden pocket between $62,644 and $63,732, followed by resistance near $65,000 and then the 50-day EMA at $66,913.
Macro headwinds: ETF outflow and rate hike odds
Pressure extends beyond charts. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of roughly $4 billion in June, a reversal from earlier institutional support. Meanwhile, markets now assign an 80% probability to a December interest rate hike, further dampening risk appetite. Bitcoin has posted back-to-back quarterly losses for the first time since the 2022 bear market. On the Myriad exchange, odds favor a move toward $55,000 over a return to $84,000.
On the 4-hour chart, BTC is compressed in a band between $59,200 and $60,400, with momentum barely positive (+0.26). A drop below $59,200 could break the tight range, directing attention back to $58,035 and lower.