Bitcoin dropped 7.3% in October 2026 after losing roughly 4% in October 2025, putting the market’s long-running “Uptober” narrative under renewed pressure.
According to Cointelegraph, citing CoinGlass data, the back-to-back October declines ran against the month’s historically bullish reputation. The report said some industry participants used darker labels this year, including “Black October” and “Hacktober,” as crypto security incidents piled up, including Binance’s record $6.3 billion hack.
Seasonal signals look weaker as monthly volatility narrows
Andrew Yang, a researcher at crypto analytics firm Kaiko, said October has historically delivered Bitcoin’s highest median return at 15.4%, with gains in 10 of 13 years through 2025.
Yang also told Cointelegraph that September’s bearish reputation has faded. Bitcoin has posted gains in every September since 2023, which may suggest traders are buying earlier in anticipation of an October rally.
Another factor, he said, is lower volatility. Bitcoin’s typical monthly move has fallen from 14% in the 2013-2016 period to 9.6% since 2024, leaving less room for sharp seasonal advances.
Institutions and macro conditions may matter more
Analysts cited institutional investment and broader economic conditions as growing influences on Bitcoin’s price behavior.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said spot ETF flows and corporate Bitcoin purchases are driven more by liquidity, interest rates and investment mandates than by seasonal trading stories.
The report added that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $515 million in net outflows in October. Spot Ether ETFs, meanwhile, logged a record $1.61 billion in monthly withdrawals.
Yang said it is still early to draw firm conclusions from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved in January 2024. Even so, he said Bitcoin is “increasingly trading like a macro asset, driven more by economic data and institutional flows than by the calendar.”
Two weak Octobers do not settle the debate
Despite the consecutive losses, analysts interviewed by Cointelegraph stopped short of declaring the end of “Uptober.”
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said October has generally performed better during Bitcoin bull markets and worse during bear markets, making the broader market cycle an important variable when comparing returns.
“Price performance depends more on spot demand dynamics than cyclical patterns, and demand doesn’t care about the calendar,” Moreno told Cointelegraph.
Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO, said traders may now be pricing in seasonal strength earlier. “When enough people expect a rally in October, the rally gets priced in before the month arrives,” he said.
d’Anethan offered a similar view, saying “Uptober” has historical validity, but like other seasonality metrics, it can fail at times.
