Bitcoin is trading at a much lower valuation relative to US tech stocks than at any point on record, according to Bitwise. In its latest Crypto Market Compass report, the asset manager said Bitcoin’s MVRV stands at 1.42, with only 36% of historical readings coming in below the current level. By contrast, the Nasdaq 100’s price-to-book ratio sits above nearly 99% of its historical observations, creating what Bitwise called the widest valuation gap ever recorded between Bitcoin and US technology equities.
MVRV is a standard crypto valuation metric that compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with the value of coins at their last on-chain movement. In practice, it is often treated as a rough parallel to the price-to-book ratio used in equities. A lower reading suggests Bitcoin is not in an overheated zone. Tech stocks are telling a different story, with valuations close to the top of their long-term range.
AI-driven equity flows have left Bitcoin behind
Bitwise linked part of the divergence to continued capital concentration in large US technology names, especially companies tied to AI. The firm said the recent rise in both US equities and gold may point to stronger demand for hard assets as a broader theme. If that demand persists, Bitwise argues, Bitcoin could benefit from the same tailwind later in the year.
Recent price action fits that view. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has largely traded between $77,000 and $79,000, while major Nasdaq components have continued to push higher. The result is a market where large-cap equities keep attracting valuation expansion while BTC has remained range-bound.
Leverage and concentration risks are building in equities
XWIN Japan approached the issue from a different angle and reached a similar conclusion. The research firm said hedge fund leverage has climbed to about 293%, while US dollar short positioning in the S&P 500 has reached record levels. Within that, Nvidia alone accounts for roughly $62.5 billion in short exposure, well above Apple at $38.5 billion and Microsoft at $33.7 billion. That kind of concentration leaves the market more exposed if positioning starts to unwind.
The warning is grounded in past market behavior. During the Covid-driven selloff in March 2020, Bitcoin fell in step with US equities. From 2020 through 2022, BTC also moved broadly in the same direction as the S&P 500. XWIN Japan said elevated concentration in stocks can increase the odds of synchronized drawdowns across markets.
Spot demand and ETF inflows are shifting Bitcoin’s behavior
At the same time, XWIN Japan said that relationship has weakened since 2025. While the S&P 500 has traded in a relatively stable range, Bitcoin has seen wider swings of its own. The firm attributed that shift to stronger spot buying and continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have made crypto-native demand a larger force in price formation.
In its view, Bitcoin may be evolving away from a pure risk asset and toward a hybrid asset class. It still reacts to macro liquidity conditions, but its market structure is no longer shaped only by the same drivers that move equities. That does not remove volatility. It changes where the volatility comes from.
BTC risk index moves above 2, a level tied to past bottoms
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV focused on the BTC risk index, which tracks capital flows in the Bitcoin market relative to total market value. The indicator has recently risen back above 2, a level that has historically appeared near major market bottoms. Higher readings are commonly associated with panic selling and rapid coin turnover, while lower readings tend to show up closer to overheated tops.
MorenoDV pointed to similar spikes after the 2015 Mt. Gox collapse, the 2018 bear market low, the March 2020 crash, and the 2022 Terra Luna and FTX failures. He described the current signal as the strongest since early 2023, though still short of the extreme stress seen in 2020 or 2022. His reading places Bitcoin in a relatively low-risk zone for now, even as the market’s behavior continues to change.