Model revision, not market action, changed the Bitcoin score
Jake Pahor said the latest reading on his Bitcoin valuation framework is 24.3, placing BTC in the bottom 20% of all observations since 2011. Two weeks earlier, he had described Bitcoin as sitting in the bottom 3% of its history, but he said the shift came from a rebuilt model rather than a large change in price.
According to Pahor, the previous version compared today’s Bitcoin price with the asset’s entire trading history, including the earliest years when BTC could rise or fall by thousands of percentage points within months. That kept the score artificially low and made it harder for the scale to reflect later-cycle conditions accurately. The rebuilt version, CSH Score v4.1, now measures where price sits inside a fair value range that moves forward with the asset instead of staying anchored to 2012.
He wrote that the revised model keeps the same 0-to-100 scale and was validated against 21 manually labeled cycle tops and bottoms across Bitcoin’s history. On that test, Pahor said, it improved recognition accuracy by about 35% compared with the old model. A simplified methodology note has also been published on the website, he said.
What previous bear-market bottoms had in common
Pahor’s main point is straightforward: since 2014, every Bitcoin bear market in this model ended only after the score dropped below 20 and stayed there for a real stretch of time.
- The 2015 bottom printed around 7.
- The December 2018 bottom printed about 15.
- At the November 2022 price low of $15,742, the score was 18 and remained below 20 for several weeks around that period.
In the current cycle, the lowest print so far is 21.5. That came on July 1, when BTC traded at $58,550. Close, but not through the threshold seen at prior major bottoms.
Pahor said his reading of the data is that, by the standard of every previous cycle, Bitcoin has not yet seen the kind of washout that historically marked the end of a bear market. He also left room for another interpretation: this cycle may simply be shallower. He pointed to an October 2025 top reading of 59, well below the 74-plus readings seen in more extreme past peaks. If tops are getting compressed, bottoms may be compressed too. He added that the model is a map of current conditions, not a prediction tool.
How he says he is acting on the signal
Pahor wrote that he bought on July 1, not because he knew it was the bottom, but because his plan had a trigger at that level and the trigger fired. He described the day as ordinary and said accumulation zones often feel dull, quiet, and uncomfortable.
He also said he is still holding a large amount of undeployed capital. That money is tied to score levels in his written plan rather than to day-to-day emotion. If the score moves below 20, his plan calls for more aggressive buying. If it does not and the market turns higher anyway, his regular dollar-cost averaging has already given him exposure.
Dashboard snapshot: BTC at $64,085, score at 24.3
As of the evening cited in the post, Bitcoin was trading at $64,085, up 0.96% for the week. The score was 24.3, up 1.6 points over the same period, or 7%. Pahor said that places BTC in the bottom 20% of all model readings since 2011. He added that Bitcoin has spent roughly 15% of its 14.4-year history in the 20-to-30 score band.
He also revisited the July 1 low, when BTC printed $58,550 and the score reached 21.5, the cheapest reading of the current cycle. Since then, price has risen about 9.5% and the score has moved up with it, but he said that does not change his plan because the next trigger remains fixed.
200-week moving average, gold ratio, and Bitcoin dominance
Pahor said BTC reclaimed its 200-week moving average this week, with that line sitting near $62.9K, after losing it on July 1. He described the average as a key line for long-term holders and noted that in the previous two bear markets, Bitcoin spent several months below it. A fast reclaim is constructive in his view, though he said his plan does not trade moving averages directly.
He also highlighted the BTC-to-gold ratio. One Bitcoin currently buys about 15.5 ounces of gold, which he said is the lowest level in nearly three years. Gold has already pulled back from a record high near $5,100 in January to around $4,120, yet BTC has still lost ground against it. Since the October top, that ratio has roughly halved from nearly 30 ounces of gold per BTC. In his framing, hard-money capital moved into gold first this cycle.
Bitcoin dominance stands at 59%, according to the post. Pahor said that leaves altseason off the radar for now. In his playbook, bear markets keep altcoins under pressure for longer and by more, so accumulation should begin with the index leader before turning to altcoins much later in the cycle.
Product rollout and next week’s watchlist
Pahor said CSH Score v4.1 is now live for BTC, with ETH, SOL, and XRP to follow. He also wrote that the site went through a full UI overhaul across charts and mobile, and that a full security audit was completed ahead of a paid founder plan.
That founder plan will have 100 seats, he said, with permanently locked-in discounted pricing. He also apologized to users whose real-time plans relied on score triggers and were affected by the model change, adding that a full changelog is available on the website.
For the coming week, Pahor said he is watching three things: whether BTC holds above the 200-week moving average near $62.9K, whether the score continues toward 20, and whether the BTC-to-gold ratio stops falling. He wrote that his team spent 10 to 12 weeks rebuilding its own model before asking anyone to pay for it, and that the new version makes the current market look less like a bottom, not more.