Bitcoin has entered another period of turbulence, challenging the earlier assumption that spot ETF adoption would make the market structurally calmer. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas said the expected stability from a more institutional investor base has not fully materialized.
According to Balchunas, one major factor was underestimated: heavy selling from early Bitcoin holders. After a rally of roughly 450% over the past two years, long-term investors who had been viewed as resilient began taking profits aggressively. That wave of distribution has helped explain why Bitcoin has continued to experience sharp and sudden price swings despite stronger institutional participation.
Balchunas had previously highlighted the more constructive side of the ETF era, noting that since BlackRock’s filing, Bitcoin had risen about 250% with lower volatility and without the kind of severe drawdowns that once defined the asset. But recent market action suggests that ETF inflows alone are not enough to eliminate volatility. Even with larger capital pools entering the market, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to profit-taking and rapid shifts in positioning.
Analysts Split on What Comes Next
Views on Bitcoin’s outlook remain divided. Mitchell Askew maintains a long-term bullish stance, arguing that Bitcoin could climb to $1 million over the next 10 years through repeated cycles of “pump” and “consolidate.” In his view, the post-ETF market may become more pattern-driven, shaking out short-term traders while rewarding investors willing to hold through periodic resets.
On the other hand, technical analyst TheGANNMan urged caution. He said one Elliott Wave-based interpretation points to a less likely expanded flat, implying a sideways structure, while another suggests a larger five-wave move that may have completed Wave A of a broader ABC zigzag correction lower. Because of that uncertainty, he advised traders to stay flexible, watch important levels closely, and respond to price action rather than commit too early to a single narrative.
Institutional Access Has Not Removed Bitcoin’s Reflexive Nature
The broader takeaway is that ETFs have changed who participates in the Bitcoin market, but they have not changed its core behavior. Larger investors may be involved, yet long-term holder distribution, technical uncertainty, and fast-moving sentiment still have the power to drive sharp volatility. For market participants, that means the focus may need to shift from expecting stability to managing a market that still alternates between breakout phases and consolidation.