This week’s focus: Bitcoin's daily structure has weakened, and the short-term rebound faces the test of the descending channel's upper rail. Has the seven-wave rally in HYPE reached its end? This article examines multi-timeframe structures to outline current market patterns and formulate medium- and short-term trading strategies. Last week, a short trade in Bitcoin yielded approximately 5.07%, confirming the prior "sell on rallies" outlook.
BTC Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Channel Pressure and Weak Repair
Since the February 6, 2026 low, Bitcoin has oscillated within an ascending channel (yellow), with the lower rail connecting the lows of February 6 and March 29, and the upper rail passing through the March 17 high in parallel. Currently, the price has lost the channel's midline and is seeking stronger support at the lower rail. Meanwhile, after hitting 82,850 on May 6, BTC entered a short-term descending channel (blue), defined by the rebound highs of May 14 and May 26 (upper rail) and the correction lows of May 7 and May 23 (lower rail). The price found temporary support near the lower rail at about 72,500 and is now in a weak rebound phase, targeting the upper rail of the descending channel. However, with the break below the midline of the ascending channel, the overall structure has weakened, and after the rebound, prices are likely to resume the downtrend, testing the lower rail of the ascending channel. (Figure 1)
BTC 4-Hour Structure: Ten-Wave Correction and Key Zones
The 4-hour chart shows that the correction from 82,850 can be subdivided into ten waves (segments 27-28 to 36-37), forming two descending consolidation zones D and E. Currently, segment 36-37 is in progress; if it encounters resistance in the 75,000–76,000 area, the downtrend is expected to continue toward 69,500–70,500. Key resistance: first at 75,000–76,000 (near the lower boundary of zone E), second at 78,500–79,500. Key support: first at 69,500–70,500, second near 65,000. (Figure 2)
BTC Short-Term Trading Plans
Using 30% of capital, two scenario-based short plans are prepared based on support/resistance and model signals. Plan A: if price rebounds to 75,000–76,000 and the spread trading model triggers a top signal, open a short position of up to 30%, stop above 77,000, and close gradually near support. Plan B: if price breaks below 69,500–70,500 and the model confirms a top signal, short up to 30%, stop above 72,000, and exit near support. Both plans emphasize strict stop-loss management.
HYPE Seven-Wave Structure: Top Signals and Momentum Exhaustion
Since the May 14 low of 38.14, HYPE has formed a clear seven-wave structure on the 4-hour chart (segments 40-41 to 46-47), with waves 43-44, 44-45, and 45-46 overlapping to create an ascending consolidation zone. As warned in the previous weekly, end point 45 exhibited momentum divergence and a top alert from the spread trading model, resulting in a correction from 64.75 to 56.30, a drop of 13.05%. Currently, the exit wave 46-47 shows weakening momentum compared to the entry segment 42-43, hinting at a potential momentum exhaustion; moreover, end point 47 has triggered a strong top warning (red dot + white dot) from the proprietary model. (Figure 4)
This week’s critical point is whether the top signal at end point 47 is confirmed. If price breaks below the 62.5–64.57 support zone, it would mark the end of the uptrend from the May 14 low. The short-term strategy is "buy on dips, avoid chasing rallies." Watch the 62.5–64.75 area: if support holds and bottom signals appear, a small long position (under 30%) can be initiated; if the area breaks, the correction will escalate to a daily-level adjustment, targeting 54–56.3 first.
Last Week’s Trade Review
Using the spread trading model and momentum quantification model, a short position was executed last week. Entry: price rallied to around 78,000 and showed a bearish top fractal pattern, with the spread model issuing a top alert (white dot) and the momentum model showing divergence. A 30% short was opened at 77,449. Exit: price dropped to about 73,000, forming a bottom fractal, and the spread model gave a strong bottom alert (red dot + white dot) while the momentum model confirmed a bottom resonance. The position was closed at 73,519, securing a 5.07% profit. (Figure 5)
Market validation: the previous week’s analysis correctly anticipated the ongoing downtrend and advised a sell-on-rallies approach, which aligned with market movement.
Risk Management and Disclaimer
Immediately set a stop after opening; when profit reaches 1%, move the stop to breakeven; at 2%, move stop to lock in 1% profit; thereafter, trail the stop by 1% for each additional 1% gain. All analysis is based on personal technical models and serves as a trading journal only, not investment advice. Markets are unpredictable, and decisions should be made with caution.