Bitcoin has drifted in the $62,000 to $62,500 range after last week’s decline, with selling pressure still weighing on price. BlockTempo, citing Cointelegraph, said the crypto market is facing a week shaped by technical signals, macro risks and on-chain activity.
Weekly death cross puts focus on September or October
While many market participants expect the next major bull run to arrive in 2027, trader Ryker offered a different view. He questioned the traditional four-year cycle theory and said larger players often position ahead of retail expectations, which could leave Bitcoin starting a sharp move as early as September or October this year.
Trader Jelle pointed to a death cross on Bitcoin’s weekly chart, where the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages have crossed. He said the signal resembles the setup seen before the bear-market bottom in September 2022, suggesting the market may be in its final accumulation phase. Even so, historical data in the report suggested the current bear market is roughly 70% complete, and that $64,000 remains a major resistance level in the short term.
Strait of Hormuz closure and oil spike add pressure
On the macro side, rising geopolitical tension is adding another layer of stress. The report said renewed U.S.-Iran conflict and Iran’s move to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, pushed U.S. WTI crude up nearly 12% over the week to $75 per barrel.
Higher energy prices have also lifted inflation expectations and sent the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield above 2.35%, its highest level in 16 months. That has weighed on risk assets including Bitcoin. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said the correction was still mainly tied to a jump in Japanese government bond yields, and that Bitcoin could get room for a rebound if those yields retreat.
Markets await CPI, PPI and Kevin Warsh testimony
U.S. markets are set to receive June consumer price index and producer price index data this week. Investors are also watching congressional monetary policy testimony from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
According to the report, Warsh has taken a hawkish stance since assuming the role. With possible rate-cut pressure on one side and renewed inflation concerns on the other, the market currently expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through September, with the possibility of a 25-basis-point hike after that.
CryptoQuant flags 67,000 BTC sold by mid-sized holders
On-chain data added another point of focus. CryptoQuant said investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC posted net sales of 67,000 BTC on July 13, the biggest daily selling volume since Feb. 19.
The report said that, historically, heavy selling from this group has often coincided with later price rebounds. It also noted that exchange inflows to Binance and Coinbase Prime have started to slow. Whether September turns into the market pivot some traders expect will depend on how actual buying demand develops from here.