Bitcoin has remained inside a descending channel since peaking at $126,000 in October 2025, and recent on-chain data suggests the correction is putting heavy pressure on large holders. The latest figures indicate that whales have been realizing losses at an unusually elevated pace, pointing to a more aggressive phase of distribution.
Whale losses hit the highest level since 2022
According to Checkonchain, Bitcoin whales realized an average of $337 million in losses per day in the first quarter of 2026. That is the highest daily loss rate seen since the 2022 bear market. The scale of these realized losses suggests that some large holders are reducing exposure as the broader downtrend persists.
Long-term holders are also contributing to the weakness. Data cited in the report shows this cohort accounted for roughly $200 million in daily realized losses. Because long-term holders are generally seen as more resilient market participants, rising loss realization from this group is often interpreted as a sign of capitulation.
More supply is slipping underwater
Checkonchain data further shows that 45.8% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently at a loss, while only 54.12% remains in profit. This indicates that although a slight majority of coins are still above cost basis, a substantial share of the market is now under pressure, which can weigh on sentiment and trading behavior.
The report describes the market as being in a state of indecision, with volatility indicators still leaning slightly bearish. In other words, the market has not fully broken down, but it also lacks a convincing signal of reversal for now.
Price range and downside risk in focus
If current conditions continue, Bitcoin may keep trading sideways between $70,000 and $65,000. However, if realized losses accelerate further, the report suggests the price could fall toward $62,500. Taken together, rising losses among whales and long-term holders point to a deeper redistribution phase, leaving the market vulnerable unless selling pressure begins to ease.