Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of crypto-focused venture fund Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, has issued a bold Bitcoin forecast, stating that the bull market is back and he is not waiting for confirmation. In a Monday Substack essay, Hayes wrote that Bitcoin found a bottom at $60,000 earlier this year and that reclaiming its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion.”
$90,000 as the Explosive Trigger
Bitcoin briefly surged above $82,000 on Tuesday and is currently trading around $80,600. A return to the $126,000 record would represent a gain of approximately 55%. Hayes flagged $90,000 as the level at which the rally would become explosive. At that price, writers of call options with higher strike prices would be forced to buy Bitcoin to cover their positions, accelerating the upward momentum. Call writers bet the price will not exceed a certain level, while buyers bet it will — and this dynamic could create a powerful feedback loop near $90,000.
Two Major Tailwinds: AI Capex and War-Driven Inflation
Hayes pointed to two macroeconomic forces that he believes are setting the stage for Bitcoin’s outperformance. The first is capital expenditure on artificial intelligence (AI), which he argues has shifted from being funded by corporate cash flow to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. He specifically mentioned the Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China loosening financial conditions to support AI buildout, with Chinese banks redirecting capital from real estate to tech. The second tailwind is the U.S.-Iran war, which is forcing sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodities rather than holding dollar-denominated assets. Hayes framed the combined impact as “higher for longer” inflation.
“War is inflationary, AI buildout is inflationary, and the political will to print money to fund both is what produces the environment for Bitcoin to outperform,” he wrote. He cited Bitcoin’s relative performance against the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF, and gold since the war began on February 28 as evidence that the asset has already begun pricing in this shift.
Maelstrom’s Altcoin Positioning
Hayes also disclosed Maelstrom’s altcoin holdings. The fund holds large positions in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and Zcash’s ZEC, with NEAR Protocol identified as the next pick. He said the NEAR thesis — which he will explain in a follow-up essay — rests on combining the privacy narrative with the protocol’s intent-based architecture to generate positive cash flow.