Historical data reveals a clear seasonal pattern for bitcoin: the fourth quarter has been the strongest period, with the cryptocurrency finishing in the green in 8 of the past 12 years and delivering an average return of 85%. This trend suggests that 2025's final months could bring significant gains if past patterns persist.
Bitcoin’s 2025 Monthly Performance So Far
In 2025, bitcoin has experienced mixed results. January saw a 9.29% gain, followed by a steep 17.39% decline in February. March slipped 2.3%, but April’s 14.08% rise and May’s 10.99% rebound helped balance the second quarter. June added 2.49%, while July gained 8.13%. As of August 17, August is up 1.83%, leaving room for further movement before the month ends.
Q3 2025: Positive but Not Predictable
Bitcoin’s third-quarter performance so far in 2025 is positive by over 10%, with both July and August in the green. September remains ahead. Historically, Q3 has been volatile, with losses in 6 of the last 12 years, but the median return is slightly positive at 0.96%. If September follows its long-term pattern—half of the past 12 years were negative—bitcoin could close Q3 with modest gains. However, especially during bull runs, the spotlight often shifts to Q4.
Q4 Historical Data: Standout Years and Averages
Data from Coinglass shows that bitcoin has ended Q4 in positive territory in 8 of the past 12 years. Exceptional years include 2017 (+215%), 2020 (+168%), and 2013 (+479%). Even in quieter years, Q4 returns often exceeded those of earlier quarters. On average, Q4 posts an 85% return, with a median of 52.31%.
Monthly Trends Reinforce the Pattern
November and December are historically two of bitcoin’s best months, averaging returns of 46% and 4.7% respectively. November, in particular, has produced positive gains in 10 of the last 12 years, including sharp rallies in 2020 and 2021. While past performance is not predictive, the data suggests that bitcoin’s current consolidation may pave the way for a stronger Q4. With August and September still in play, the third quarter remains undecided, but history tilts toward the final months carrying bitcoin higher.