Bitfinex analysts said in a new report that derivatives traders were largely washed out during Bitcoin’s late-June sell-off, leaving limited room for another wave of forced selling. After Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on July 1, average daily liquidations stayed well below this year’s typical $400 million to $500 million range, which the analysts said points to relatively low liquidation pressure even as macro shocks continued to hit the market. They argued that Bitcoin held up better than leveraged equity themes because the "fuel" for forced selling had already been exhausted. Looking ahead, the analysts expect investors to stay defensive ahead of next week’s U.S. jobs report, which they described as the next major macro catalyst after the Federal Reserve meeting. In their view, the bigger question is not whether another liquidation event is coming, but whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can return once the market has a clearer read on the Fed’s path. They added that traders still have not seen a signal showing institutional buyers are actively stepping in or are insensitive to price.
Bitfinex analysts said in a report that derivatives traders had largely been washed out during Bitcoin’s sell-off in late June.
According to the report, after Bitcoin fell below $58,000 on July 1, average daily liquidations remained far below this year’s typical $400 million to $500 million range. The analysts said this suggests forced selling pressure has stayed limited despite macro shocks. They added that Bitcoin’s decline was smaller than that of leveraged equity themes because the "fuel" for forced liquidations had already run out.
The analysts expect investors to remain defensive ahead of next week’s U.S. jobs report, which they described as the next major macro catalyst after the Federal Reserve meeting.
They said the more important issue is not the risk of a fresh round of forced liquidations, but whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows can return once the market has a clearer view of the Fed’s path.
The analysts wrote, "We believe positioning will remain defensive while the risk of Fed rate hikes is still present. A signal traders have yet to see is whether institutional buyers are active or insensitive to price."
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