Bitfinex said Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision on Oct. 28, even after facing repeated downside pressure. The firm said BTC has continued to hold the lower end of its recent range, though any move toward the upper boundary could trigger selling from short-term traders taking profit.
The note also pointed to stronger spot demand, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $526.7 million in net inflows on Oct. 19. Even so, BTC continued to trade in a narrow band between $81,724 and $83,470, still below the $84,333 average cost basis of ETF investors.
In derivatives, open interest in futures across major exchanges rose 4.2% from the Oct. 12 low to 645,410 BTC, while funding rates moved back toward normal levels, suggesting a recovery in leveraged long positioning. In options, notional open interest for contracts expiring on Oct. 23 stood at $1.23 billion with a max pain point near $82,000, while the monthly expiry on Oct. 30 reached $11.2 billion with max pain at $76,000. On-chain data showed about 145,000 BTC added around the $82,224 cost basis range, while roughly 62,000 BTC left the $80,353 range.
Bitfinex said Bitcoin is expected to trade between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, rate decision on Oct. 28, after repeatedly coming under pressure to break lower but continuing to hold the bottom of its range.
The exchange said a test of the upper end of that band could bring some selling pressure as short-term traders lock in profits.
Spot ETF inflows rise while BTC stays in a tight band
Market data cited by Bitfinex showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $526.7 million on Oct. 19, pointing to stronger spot demand. Even so, BTC remained in a narrow trading range between $81,724 and $83,470, and the current price was still below the $84,333 average cost basis of ETF investors.
Futures open interest rebounds from the Oct. 12 low
Bitfinex said futures open interest across major exchanges rose 4.2% from its Oct. 12 low to 645,410 BTC. Funding rates also moved back toward normal levels, a sign that leveraged long positions have recovered to some extent.
Options market shows two key expiry dates
In options, notional open interest for contracts expiring on Oct. 23 stood at $1.23 billion, with max pain around $82,000. For the monthly expiry on Oct. 30, the figure reached $11.2 billion, with max pain at $76,000.
On-chain cost basis shifts higher
On-chain data showed that about 145,000 BTC was added in the $82,224 cost basis range, while about 62,000 BTC was reduced from the $80,353 range, indicating that part of the supply has moved toward a higher cost basis band.
Bitfinex also said short-term holder SOPR was around 1.003, while the share of supply in profit was about 70%.
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