Bitfinex Alpha said in its latest report that Bitcoin’s near-term breakout still depends on Federal Reserve guidance, along with the direction of real yields and energy prices, as rising energy costs, higher real yields and weakening consumer confidence complicate the macro backdrop. The report said BTC has traded within a roughly 5.5% range for more than 24 straight trading days, with the cost basis of about 840,000 BTC sitting inside that band. Profit-taking has slowed sharply, pushing the seller risk ratio down to 7 basis points, one of the lowest readings in the past year. Even so, the report said weak spot demand continues to limit a move higher. Bitfinex also pointed to leveraged positioning at both ends of the range. Around $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk is clustered near $82,000, while a sizable concentration of long positions sits in the $75,000 to $76,000 zone, a setup that could amplify price swings after the Fed’s rate decision.
Bitfinex Alpha said in its latest report that a more difficult macro backdrop is clouding Bitcoin’s path out of its current trading range, with rising energy costs, higher real yields and weaker consumer confidence all adding pressure.
The report said whether BTC can break out from here will depend on Federal Reserve policy guidance and on what happens next with real yields and energy prices.
Bitcoin has held within an approximately 5.5% range for more than 24 consecutive trading days, according to the report. The cost basis of roughly 840,000 BTC is located within that band. As profit-taking has slowed markedly, the seller risk ratio has fallen to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels seen over the past year. Even so, insufficient buying demand is still limiting a breakout.
Bitfinex also said leverage has built up near both the upper and lower ends of the range. About $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk is concentrated near $82,000, while the $75,000 to $76,000 area holds a sizable cluster of long positions. That positioning may magnify price volatility after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
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