The crypto market is on edge ahead of a crucial 'Super Central Bank week.' According to The Block, Bitcoin price slipped on Wednesday, struggling to break above the $65,000 resistance. Market participants are awaiting Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's first FOMC decision, while MicroStrategy (Strategy) is facing headwinds as its preferred stock hit an all-time low, signaling waning buying power from the company that has been a major BTC bull.
On June 17 (Wednesday), Bitcoin traded around $64,550, down nearly 2% in the session. Investors adopted a risk-off stance, focusing on US-Iran deal details and the Fed's economic projections.
Spot ETF inflows remained modest on June 16, with Bitcoin ETFs netting $10.1 million (led by BlackRock's IBIT at $16.4 million) and Ethereum ETFs netting $9.6 million. However, overall buying pressure remains weak.
Inflation Spikes to 4.2%: Warsh's First Test
This week's main event is the FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time. While rates are expected to stay at 3.50%-3.75%, the macro backdrop is challenging. US inflation surged to 4.2% YoY, a three-year high, driven by energy prices from the US-Iran conflict. WTI crude stays at $80-$85.
Institutions predict the Fed may price in a 50-basis-point rate hike in 2026. The dot plot will be closely watched for hawkish shifts. Analysts warn that if Warsh turns hawkish due to inflation, Bitcoin could drop to the $62,000-$63,000 support zone.
MicroStrategy's Preferred Stock Crashes, Cash Runway Shrinks
MicroStrategy (STR C), the corporate Bitcoin holder, saw its preferred stock sink to $91.79 on June 16, an all-time low, with yields surging to 12.5%. This reflects weakening institutional appetite for its capital-raising efforts.
After buying back $1.5 billion in convertible bonds, the company's cash flow is under pressure. It raised $200 million via equity to pay dividends, with cash runway estimated at only 7.5 months. Last week, MicroStrategy bought just 1,587 BTC (~$100 million), far below its usual pace. Analysts note, 'The machine that used to gobble up Bitcoin has slowed down.'
Bitfinex: Rally Is 'Seller Exhaustion,' Not Trend Reversal
Bitfinex analysts downplayed the 13.5% bounce from the $59,200 low, calling it a 'relief rally within a range' driven by exhausted selling pressure and easing geopolitical tensions, not new spot demand.
Open interest in futures has not risen alongside price, indicating weak spot follow-through. The rally stalled below the quarterly open at $68,266. Options market shows elevated implied volatility and a rising put skew, signaling hedging rather than bullish bets.
Bitfinex expects Bitcoin to range between $60,000 and $68,266 with high volatility. If it loses the $59,200 support without a recovery in MicroStrategy's stock and massive ETF inflows, BTC could decline to the realized price around $54,000.