According to ChainCatcher, Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang stated in a live stream titled "Logic of Gold Trend Deconstruction" that the key data for this week are the US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the first-quarter GDP final. These indicators will directly influence market expectations regarding the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Previously released CPI and PPI data both hit new highs, while nonfarm payrolls continued to show strength, reflecting the resilience of the US economy. However, signs of inflation rebound are becoming more evident, coupled with hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, leading the market to gradually price in further rate hikes. Huang specifically noted that Warsh has made it clear that curbing inflation is the top priority, and the dot plot indicates that a rate hike in 2026 is becoming an internal consensus. This means the market must prepare for a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
Regarding the outlook for gold, Huang analyzed that due to geopolitical conflicts pushing up energy prices, the overall PCE annual growth rate could rise to 3.4% or even higher. If the PCE data exceeds expectations, the US dollar index will gain strong upward momentum, while gold and other non-yielding assets may face downside risk due to a stronger dollar. He advised CFD traders to closely monitor inflation expectation gaps, flexibly capture long-dollar opportunities, and guard against possible downside moves in gold.