Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang said market attention has shifted back from tech earnings to US employment data and Federal Reserve policy expectations this week. In a live broadcast, Huang flagged that the nonfarm payrolls report's real test is whether unemployment, average hourly earnings and prior-month revisions together point to an 'orderly cooling' or a 'clear slowdown' in the labor market. If payrolls and wage growth both beat expectations, Huang said, markets would scale back near-term rate-cut bets, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar higher while pressuring gold and richly valued tech stocks. Conversely, if employment, wages and revisions all disappoint, Fed easing expectations would rise, lending support to gold and non-US currencies. Huang advised CFD traders not to chase the first minute after the data release, and to watch for synchronized confirmation across the two-year Treasury yield, the dollar index and gold before taking pullback entries after key levels break. The core trade, he said, is not betting on the data itself but on how it reshapes market pricing of the Fed's policy path.
Bitget CFD Chief Analyst Lewis Huang said this week's market focus has shifted back from tech earnings to US jobs data and Federal Reserve policy expectations, with the nonfarm payrolls report set to test the resilience of the American economy.
In a live broadcast, Huang said the report's significance goes beyond the headline payrolls number. The key question is whether unemployment, average hourly earnings and prior-month revisions together point to an 'orderly cooling' or a 'clear slowdown' in the labor market.
Strong data pressures near-term rate-cut bets
If payrolls and wage growth both come in stronger than expected, Huang said, markets would trim near-term rate-cut pricing. Treasury yields and the dollar would firm, while gold and richly valued tech stocks face pressure.
If employment, wages and revisions all soften, market pricing would move toward more Fed easing, lending support to gold and non-US currencies.
Watch for confirmation, not the first print
Huang advised CFD traders to avoid chasing the move in the first minute after the release. Instead, he said, they should watch whether the two-year Treasury yield, the dollar index and gold form a synchronized confirmation, and wait for a pullback after key levels break.
The core trade, he said, is not a one-way bet on the data beating or missing. It is judging how the payrolls report will change the market's pricing of the Fed's policy path.
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