Top developments
Fed stays on a restrictive path
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation in the U.S. remains elevated across multiple areas, and that core price pressure has not eased enough even after excluding food and energy.
The report said most Fed officials still expect at least one more rate increase this year. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved above 5% last Friday and was last seen near 4.98%.
In the report’s reading, risk assets are now dealing with high energy costs, elevated financing rates, and shifting earnings expectations at the same time. If inflation broadens further, the room for valuation recovery in technology shares and crypto assets could narrow.
Brent crude pulls back toward $103 after Riyadh attack
Yemen’s Houthi forces launched missile and drone attacks on Riyadh, the Saudi capital, raising tensions in the Middle East again. Brent November crude futures briefly climbed to $104.82 a barrel and were around $103.50 at the time of review. After the contract roll, WTI November futures were near $95.22.
Oil prices are still supported by risks tied to Middle East energy facilities, transport routes, and possible supply disruptions, though early-session gains had already narrowed. The note said Brent staying above $100 supports energy-sector earnings, but also raises cost pressure for transportation, manufacturing, and data centers. The retreat from the intraday high suggests the market has not fully priced in another major supply disruption, though geopolitical developments could still amplify short-term swings.
China keeps LPR unchanged for a 16th straight month
China left its 1-year loan prime rate at 3.00% in September and kept the over-5-year LPR at 3.50%, marking a 16th consecutive month without a change. The outcome matched broad market expectations.
According to the report, Fed tightening, a wider China-U.S. rate gap, and pressure on banks’ net interest margins have limited the room for broad near-term rate cuts. A steady policy setting may help reduce pressure on the exchange rate and the banking system, though demand in property and private-sector credit still bears watching. Markets are also looking for follow-up fiscal support and structural monetary tools.
Market recap
Commodities and FX
Spot gold was around $4,367.50 an ounce, spot silver traded near $66.21 an ounce, WTI crude futures were about $95.22 a barrel, Brent crude futures were around $103.50 a barrel, and the U.S. Dollar Index stood near 99.97.
Gold was moving around the $4,370 area as safe-haven demand and pressure from high rates offset each other. Brent remained above $100 but gave back part of its spike after the Riyadh attack. With the dollar index back near 100 and the 10-year Treasury yield just below 5%, trading stayed focused on energy prices and the Fed’s rate path.
Crypto market performance
BTC traded around 81,711 USDT, up about 0.50% over 24 hours. ETH changed hands near 2,680 USDT, up about 2.00%. Total crypto market capitalization was roughly $2.86 trillion, up about 0.20% on the day. Twenty-four-hour turnover was about $24.66 billion for BTC and $9.92 billion for ETH.
The note said BTC held above $81,000 while ETH showed stronger relative performance. Over the past seven days, BTC and ETH were up about 5.8% and 6.8%, respectively. Current price and volume action points to active trading, but the report said there has not been a volume breakout strong enough on its own to prove sustained net accumulation by major players.
As of publication, the report said it had found no newly verified large corporate BTC or ETH purchases disclosed over the weekend. The latest confirmed information still includes Strive buying 469 BTC between Sept. 8 and Sept. 11, and BitMine buying 27,180 ETH in the prior week. Both were disclosed around Sept. 14 and were not new positions announced today. BitMine now holds about 5.956 million ETH, with holdings up about 141,200 ETH over the past 30 days, but that cumulative change should not be treated as a same-day purchase.
U.S. stock indexes
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,682.64, down 0.18%. The S&P 500 ended at 7,650.50, up 0.17%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.40% to 26,522.55.
For the week, the Nasdaq gained about 0.7%, while the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% and the Dow fell about 1.7%. Even though the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished higher on Friday, declining stocks still outnumbered advancers on both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Index gains were driven mainly by a group of large technology and semiconductor names.
Magnificent Seven split
NVDA closed at $222.27, up 1.22%. AAPL fell 0.36% to $336.13. MSFT dropped 0.86% to $493.78. GOOGL rose 0.51% to $349.54. AMZN added 1.00% to $253.71. META fell 2.50% to $665.75. TSLA slipped 0.52% to $364.27.
Three of the seven rose and four fell. Nvidia led the gainers, with Amazon and Alphabet also higher, while Meta posted the largest decline. Semiconductor strength helped support the Nasdaq, but performance inside large-cap tech remained uneven as high rates and questions around returns on AI capital spending continued to weigh on valuations.
Sector moves: crypto-linked shares and semis outperform
Crypto-linked stocks moved sharply higher as Bitcoin rebounded. Strategy rose 16.41%, Coinbase gained 11.66%, and Robinhood added 9.12%. The report said Bitcoin climbed about 5.9% last Friday, lifting digital-asset treasury companies and trading platforms. These stocks remain much more volatile than spot BTC, and the note said traders should keep watching whether the coin’s move holds, along with financing costs and possible equity dilution.
Semiconductor and memory names also stayed firm. Micron rose 3.89%, Broadcom gained 2.99%, and AMD added 2.63%. The market is still trading around AI compute demand, HBM, and data-center spending, though the move was not broad-based. Individual stock performance still depends on valuation, product cycles, and whether orders convert into results.
Deeper look at selected U.S. stocks
Strategy (MSTR): Bitcoin rebound magnifies equity beta
Strategy rose 16.41% on Sept. 18 to close at $153.92. Bitcoin’s rebound over the same period helped lift the broader group of digital-asset reserve stocks.
The report said Strategy carries high beta to Bitcoin, but its share price is also shaped by the premium to the net asset value of its holdings, its financing structure, potential equity dilution, and debt costs. That means the stock is not a simple one-for-one reflection of spot BTC.
Key points to watch include whether BTC can hold above $80,000, any new company disclosures on coin purchases, follow-on share sales or convertible debt financing, and changes in the premium of market capitalization relative to the net value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Micron (MU): memory leads, execution still matters
Micron gained 3.89% to close at $1,015.80, outperforming the major indexes. The report said memory pricing, HBM demand, and AI server capital spending continue to support expectations.
Short-term share gains reflect optimism about industry conditions, but whether the move can last still depends on contract pricing, capacity utilization, and yields for higher-end products. The note said investors should watch HBM contracts, DRAM price trends, shipment guidance, and gross margin changes. If long-end yields move back above 5%, richly valued semiconductor stocks could still face valuation swings.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals (XENE): trial pause triggers repricing of risk
Xenon Pharmaceuticals fell 30.71% to $39.75 after the company paused enrollment in a depression-related clinical trial following reports of side effects.
The report said biotech valuations depend heavily on the probability of success for core pipelines. A clinical pause raises uncertainty around development timelines, regulatory requirements, and commercialization progress. Areas to watch now include the outcome of the safety review, the scope of the pause, communication with regulators, conditions for restarting the trial, and the company’s cash reserves. Until the picture clears, the stock may remain highly volatile.
Market and project updates
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission introduced a five-year exemptive framework for trading tokenized stocks. Eligible tokenized shares must give investors the same dividend and voting rights as traditional shares. Synthetic tokens that only track stock prices and do not represent actual ownership are not covered by the exemption.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held talks in New York on trade, artificial intelligence safety, and critical minerals. Rare earth supply, tariffs, and AI rules are among the issues the market is watching.
Warren Buffett has formally stepped down as chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and moved into the role of honorary chairman. His son Howard Buffett has become non-executive chairman, while Greg Abel remains chief executive officer.
BitMine now holds about 5.956 million ETH, equal to roughly 4.9% of Ethereum supply. The report said that figure reflects the scale of corporate ETH reserves and should not be read as a same-size purchase made over the weekend.
Today’s calendar
- 09:00 China September 1-year and over-5-year LPR: unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%
- 20:30 U.S. August Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- 21:30 U.S. regular stock market session opens
What markets are watching next
Traders are looking for more comments from Fed officials and for changes in market pricing around the timing of the next rate increase. The U.S. will also release manufacturing and services PMI data, new home sales, and durable goods orders later this week.
On earnings, the report highlighted AutoZone, General Mills, and Costco, with attention on results and guidance tied to consumer demand. On China-U.S. relations, markets are watching for the expected high-level contact this week and whether there is progress on trade, critical minerals, and AI safety. In energy, developments after the Riyadh attack could still affect oil prices, inflation expectations, and risk assets.
Institutional views
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said the 5% level on the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and $100 oil are key psychological thresholds for markets, and that staying above them would create a clear headwind. Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services said investors turned more cautious after a volatile week and that oil remains an important variable for market direction.
Disclaimer: the report said the material is for market information only and does not constitute investment advice. Prices in cryptocurrencies, commodities, and foreign exchange can change in real time, and actual trading quotes should prevail.