Bitget UEX said in its July 23 daily report that rising U.S.-Iran tensions lifted oil prices and pushed Fed tightening expectations higher at the same time, creating another difficult session for risk assets. According to the note, CME’s FedWatch tool showed the probability of at least one rate increase before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting approaching 80%.
Oil jumps as U.S.-Iran rhetoric escalates
The report said U.S. President Donald Trump warned that if Iran opened fire on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington would bomb and destroy Iranian bridges or power plants. Iran’s military responded by saying it would firmly exercise its sovereignty and would never allow the strait to become a tool of threat.
That exchange helped push international crude futures sharply higher, with settlement prices reaching their highest levels in more than a month. Bitget UEX said stronger oil prices were adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing hawkish expectations, a mix that was capping valuations across risk assets while also supporting demand for the dollar and for gold as a haven.
In broader commodities, both WTI and Brent crude finished strongly higher. Spot gold and silver also moved up, helped by haven demand and a slight pullback in the U.S. dollar. The report said higher energy costs could filter through the economy and make the Fed’s policy path harder to read, leaving commodity volatility elevated.
Fiscal concerns in the U.S. meet policy debate in Japan
On macro policy, Trump said in a speech in Georgia that the federal government could shut down in September because of disagreements between the two parties over spending priorities. The House has passed a short-term funding bill through Dec. 4, while negotiations continue in the Senate.
The report also cited people familiar with the matter as saying the Bank of Japan has become more open to raising rates faster than markets broadly expect, as continued yen weakness adds to inflation risks. Even so, the July 31 meeting is still widely expected to leave rates unchanged.
Bitget UEX said the combination of U.S. fiscal uncertainty and greater flexibility in Japanese policy could increase volatility in global capital flows and, in the short run, support the haven appeal of dollar-denominated assets.
Commodities and FX snapshot
The daily report listed the following moves across commodities and foreign exchange:
- Spot gold: $4,130.99 per ounce, -0.02%
- Spot silver: $59.72 per ounce, +0.08%
- WTI crude: about $87.9 per barrel, +1.21%
- Brent crude: about $95.55 per barrel, +1.57%
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 101.09, -0.03%
Bitget UEX said the immediate driver for oil was the U.S.-Iran standoff, but traders were also focused on the way higher energy prices could feed into consumer inflation and strengthen expectations for a September Fed move. Gold and silver rose alongside that shift, aided by geopolitical demand for safety and by the modest dip in the dollar index.
The report said that if developments around Hormuz continue to intensify, oil may stay elevated and keep pressure on risk appetite. If tensions ease, those gains could unwind quickly. It added that commodities are currently highly sensitive to geopolitical pricing.
Crypto market review: BTC slips, ETF inflows continue but slow
In digital assets, BTC was quoted at about $66,199, down 0.66%, while ETH traded at about $1,937, down 0.03%. Total crypto market capitalization stood at roughly $2.33 trillion, down 0.5%.
- Total liquidations over 24 hours: about $183 million
- Long liquidations: $106 million
Bitget UEX’s BTC/USDT liquidation map put the current price at about $66,153. A large concentration of short liquidations sits in the $66,700 to $67,500 range. The report said a break above $66,500 could trigger a chain of short covering and lead to a sharper move higher in the short term. On the downside, long liquidations are mainly clustered between $65,300 and $64,500, though that pressure is lighter than the one above the market. In that setup, the current structure still leans toward first sweeping short-side liquidity.
For ETF flows, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $203 million yesterday, while the current rolling 24-hour net inflow was $30 million. That marked a seventh straight day of net inflows.
The report said macro pressure from the U.S.-Iran situation and firmer rate expectations was weighing on risk assets, pulling BTC back from higher levels. ETF demand is still positive, but the slowdown in inflows suggests institutions are more cautious. Liquidation sizes remain manageable, and the report said there has been no broad-based cascade so far.
From a market structure perspective, BTC is still oscillating around $66,000, with bulls and bears divided. Bitget UEX also pointed to progress around the Clarity Act, which it described as legislation that would prohibit the president and federal officials from issuing digital assets. That has added to discussion around the pace of regulatory implementation and could raise short-term volatility. Overall, the report said macro conditions and fund flows remain the main drivers, with ETH showing slightly better resilience than BTC.
U.S. stocks: Nasdaq lags as big tech reactions diverge
Major U.S. indexes closed little changed to lower:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,218.58, -0.01%
- S&P 500: 7,498.96, -0.14%
- Nasdaq: 25,690.90, -0.57%
The note said the Dow’s flat finish pointed to a defensive tone, while the S&P 500 edged lower under pressure from large-cap names. The Nasdaq saw the sharpest decline as technology stocks broadly came under strain.
Among major tech companies, the report listed:
- NVDA: $212.06, +2.30%
- AAPL: $325.89, -0.56%
- MSFT: $390.34, -1.86%
- GOOGL: $342.09, -1.46%
- AMZN: $244.85, -1.09%
- META: $627.17, -2.58%
- TSLA: $374.01, -1.30%
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.44%, with Nvidia and Broadcom leading. Bitget UEX said that continued demand for AI infrastructure remains visible in hardware. Software and application names were much weaker, with Palantir down more than 6% and Salesforce down more than 4%.
Alphabet and Tesla reported strong revenue after the close, but the market reaction remained mixed because both companies also raised questions about spending and cash generation. The report said concerns over faster cash burn intensified as capital expenditure plans increased and free cash flow turned negative, deepening the split within the sector.
Its broader takeaway was that AI hardware is still being rewarded, while software and parts of consumer electronics are facing pressure. Valuation and cash flow have become the main lenses through which investors are repricing the group.
Sector moves: software weak, semis hold up
Application software fell by more than 3%, with Palantir down 6.1% and Salesforce down 4.15%. Bitget UEX said investors are showing less tolerance for richly valued growth stocks as rate expectations rise, and some guidance updates also came in below expectations.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index added 0.44%. Nvidia rose 2.3% and Broadcom climbed 2.67%. The report said spending expectations from companies including OpenAI, along with ongoing demand for AI compute and data center buildouts, continued to support the semiconductor trade.
Single-stock analysis: Alphabet, Tesla, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow and IBM
Alphabet: cloud strength offset by first negative free cash flow
Alphabet’s second-quarter revenue and profit both beat expectations, and Google Cloud posted its strongest growth in recent quarters. Backlog reached $514 billion. The company raised full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion-$205 billion to speed up AI compute expansion. Bitget UEX said the company posted negative free cash flow for the first time in its history, and the stock fell more than 3% after hours.
The report said institutions recognize the strength in cloud and AI execution, but they are wary of the much larger capex bill and weaker cash flow, with concern growing that the payback period could stretch out. Its investment takeaway was simple: the AI spending race has intensified, and cash-flow quality is becoming central to valuation.
Tesla: revenue beats, but margin and cash-flow pressure remain
Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.236 billion, up 26% year over year and above market expectations. Automotive revenue came in at $20.516 billion. Bitget UEX said profit was hurt by lower average selling prices and promotions, capex missed target levels, and free cash flow turned negative. The company said it is in its biggest investment phase.
The report said delivery strength was acknowledged, but pressure on margins and cash generation is forcing investors to reassess the pace of spending on robotics and autonomous driving. The balance between volume growth and profitability remains the central issue.
Texas Instruments: revenue and guidance both top expectations
Texas Instruments posted second-quarter revenue of $5.46 billion, above expectations. Its third-quarter revenue guidance of $5.65 billion to $6.15 billion also came in ahead of market forecasts. Industrial, data center and automotive businesses led performance, and shareholder returns for the full year were about $5.8 billion.
Bitget UEX said institutions now see firmer signs of a recovery in analog chip demand, while data centers and autos are emerging as growth engines. The report framed the stock as a mix of cyclical recovery and structural demand support.
ServiceNow: strong subscription growth and rapid AI agent deployment
ServiceNow reported second-quarter revenue of $3.987 billion, up 24% year over year, while subscription revenue rose 24.5%. Remaining performance obligations reached $29 billion. The report said AI agent deployments increased ninefold over nine months.
Bitget UEX said enterprise software and cybersecurity demand remain steady and that the market is recognizing early signs of AI commercialization. Recurring revenue quality and monetization capacity still anchor the long-term case.
IBM: modest growth, but lower full-year outlook
IBM reported second-quarter revenue of $17.2 billion, up 1% year over year, while adjusted EPS missed expectations. The company cut its full-year revenue growth outlook from “above 5%” to “4%-5%,” and mainframe business declined sharply.
The report said IBM’s software business remains steady, but hardware weakness is still a drag. The lower guidance has made investors more cautious, and the pace of improvement in software mix remains a key point to watch.
Market and project updates
- Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said in a post that the bottom of Bitcoin’s bear market may already be in place. He argued that Bitcoin has matured into a macro asset and will be driven more by real rates and economic growth than by the four-year halving cycle. He added that Bitcoin bear markets have historically aligned with slower growth and rising real rates, and said that if the Fed stops hiking while the economy stays healthy, Bitcoin may already have bottomed.
- Alphabet reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter results on July 22 local time. Revenue was $119.8 billion, up 24% year over year and marking a 12th straight quarter of double-digit growth. GAAP operating profit reached $40.8 billion, up 30%, and operating margin improved to 34%. GAAP EPS was $9.11, above market expectations. The report noted that net income was significantly boosted by investment gains, including fair-value changes in some equity holdings.
- Tesla kept its Bitcoin holdings unchanged in the second quarter at 11,509 BTC, extending a streak of nearly four years without buying or selling Bitcoin. With Bitcoin falling from about $83,000 to $58,000 during the quarter, Tesla reported an after-tax impairment loss of $112 million on its digital asset holdings.
- Apple plans to refresh its full Mac lineup from this fall into next year, including the iMac, MacBook Pro, MacBook Air, Mac mini and Mac Studio, to meet growing AI computing demand. The report said Apple will launch an entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro with a new M6 chip, deliver the first iMac refresh in two years, and release high-end 14-inch and 16-inch MacBooks with OLED touchscreens and M5 Pro/M5 Max chips between late this year and early next year. Apple is also developing new MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models with M7-series chips and an OLED iMac, while upgrading the entry-level MacBook Neo with an A19 Pro chip and more memory. Demand for the Mac mini and Mac Studio is strong in AI use cases, with delivery times for some models stretched to three months, and supply tightness is affecting launch timing.
- Sui said its Bitcoin cross-chain solution Hashi, first announced in March, is now live on testnet. The setup lets users use native BTC as programmable collateral on Sui without moving BTC off the Bitcoin mainnet. According to Sui, Hashi uses a 2-of-2 multisig design through Guardian Layer, with Hashi validators and an independent guardian jointly signing to manage staked BTC assets.
- OpenAI is expanding its data center footprint and increasing budget plans for that area. Sources cited in the report said OpenAI has lifted its projected compute spending through 2030 from about $600 billion earlier this year to about $750 billion.
- Anthropic will begin buying up to 2 gigawatts of AMD’s latest-generation Instinct MI450 chips in the first half of 2027.
Market calendar
The report flagged the following items on the near-term calendar:
- Time to be determined: U.S. employment and inflation-related data watch, importance rating ★★★
- Evening session: possible remarks from Bank of Japan officials, importance rating ★★★
On Thursday, July 23, American Airlines, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Nokia and Raytheon Technologies are scheduled to report before the U.S. market opens. Intel is due after the close, with the market focused on chip demand and AI-related outlook, carrying an importance rating of ★★★★★.
On Friday, July 24, Trump is set to attend the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, and his remarks could affect markets, with an importance rating of ★★★★. AMD will also host its Advancing AI event, where CEO Lisa Su will speak about AI agents and model optimization, also rated ★★★★.
Institutional view in the report
Bitget UEX said U.S. equities edged lower over the past 24 hours as higher oil prices and stronger rate expectations weighed on sentiment, with a clear split inside technology stocks. In its reading, earnings from Alphabet and Tesla confirmed underlying demand in AI and electric vehicles, but the jump in capital spending and the move into negative cash flow left investors divided on the timeline for returns.
The report said geopolitical risk has strengthened hawkish pricing through crude, while gold and silver have benefited from haven demand. Crypto, meanwhile, is still trading in a narrow band under the combined weight of regulatory discussion and macro pressure. Its conclusion was that markets are still trying to balance the long AI narrative against short-term policy and geopolitical risk, with capital showing greater preference for companies that have a clearer path to improving cash flow.