BlockBeats reported on Sept. 10 that a Bitunix analyst said markets are closely watching the August Consumer Price Index report due Friday, with core CPI at 0.2% or 0.3% month over month seen as a figure that could directly shape the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision.
The analysis said the market-implied probability of a rate hike has risen from 35% before Waller’s speech to about 60%, indicating that investors have already traded ahead of a more hawkish policy scenario. If inflation shows a clear slowdown, the Fed would still have reason to wait. If the reading comes in hot, questions would return over whether the summer improvement in inflation was only temporary, and Waller would have much less room to keep rates unchanged.
Markets are looking past a single monthly CPI print
According to the analyst, the harder problem is not the one-month data point itself but the multiple supply-side pressures still sitting behind inflation. Tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices to near $100 a barrel. New tariffs and supply-chain strain linked to AI buildout could also allow price pressure to build again.
In that framing, the key question for markets is not simply whether August CPI is high or low. It is whether underlying inflation remains above a range the Fed can accept.
Treasury buybacks have not stopped long-end yields from rising
The analysis also said the U.S. Treasury market is testing the Treasury Department’s policy tools. The department raised the cap on long-dated bond buybacks to $6 billion, yet the 10-year Treasury yield still moved up to around 4.85%.
That suggests buybacks can improve some aspects of liquidity and maturity structure, but they are unlikely to offset the effects of the fiscal deficit, large borrowing needs, and expectations for higher rates. When markets stop relying only on policy signals and go back to pricing on fundamentals, the Treasury Department may influence trading pace, but not necessarily the equilibrium yield.
September’s focus extends beyond one inflation number
The analyst said the real issue for September is no longer a single CPI reading, but whether inflation, energy pressure, and fiscal stress together extend the high-rate cycle. If CPI comes in weak, Treasuries and risk assets may get some relief. If it comes in hot, expectations for Fed tightening and long-end yields could reinforce each other, putting more pressure on financial conditions.