BlockBeats reported on July 22 that a Bitunix analyst sees the latest Middle East escalation feeding directly into energy transport, dollar strength, rate expectations and the pricing of global assets.
According to the analyst, Donald Trump said he had “no interest” in meeting Iran and threatened a heavy strike on the Kuh-e Kolang area, which he described as housing underground nuclear facilities. Iran responded by saying that if its nuclear facilities were attacked, all U.S. and allied interests in the region would become targets. Pakistan is still acting as a mediator, but the analyst said Washington’s message that Iran must “pay a price” suggests military pressure is likely to remain in place in the near term.
Hormuz traffic drops, while the Red Sea and Black Sea also tighten
The analyst said the more immediate signal is coming from energy transport data. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to about 15% of pre-war levels, and many international shipowners have withdrawn. Two tankers carrying Saudi crude even turned around in the Red Sea and rerouted through the Suez Canal.
The Red Sea, which had been seen as an alternative route, is now facing fresh uncertainty because of Houthi threats to block passage. At the same time, Kazakhstan has announced a suspension of oil shipments via the Black Sea. In the analyst’s view, that shifts the problem from a single-strait disruption to simultaneous pressure on two major shipping routes.
Weak ADP data has not erased rate hike bets
The note said this supply shock is changing the backdrop for the Federal Reserve. The latest ADP data showed cooling momentum in U.S. private-sector hiring, but market bets on autumn rate hikes have not disappeared, because rising oil prices could lift inflation again.
That leaves the Fed dealing with a mix of slowing employment and hotter energy-driven inflation, rather than a straightforward growth slowdown. The analyst used that framework to explain why U.S. money market funds, which hold $8 trillion, have kept shortening duration and raising allocations to overnight and floating-rate assets. Large pools of capital, the note said, are willing to give up some yield in exchange for the flexibility to reprice quickly.
USD/JPY briefly rises above 163
Foreign exchange markets are reflecting the same increase in funding costs. USD/JPY briefly broke above 163, the weakest level for the yen since 1986. The analyst said Japan’s earlier intervention of more than JPY 11 trillion has still struggled against the combined pressure of rising oil prices, higher U.S. Treasury yields and carry trades.
The market is now watching 165 as the next key level, and some institutions have projected that the pair could test 170 over the next year.
Tariffs, pharmaceuticals and tech costs move higher together
On trade policy, the analyst said the Trump administration is preparing follow-up measures after the expiry of a 10% temporary tariff, with new tariffs on dozens of countries possible as soon as this week. Washington also said generic drug manufacturers that fail to move capacity back to the U.S. within two years would face a 100% tariff in 2028, rising to 200% in 2029.
The analyst described that structure as a deadline-first, step-up tariff design aimed at forcing an early reshaping of global supply chains, with India’s generic drug industry likely to be hit first.
The technology supply chain is also showing new cost signals. TSMC is reportedly set to raise wafer foundry prices from 2027, with increases of as much as 10%. OpenAI has also acknowledged a hacking incident involving Hugging Face, which the analyst said shows security costs are rising across AI models and the open-source ecosystem. In that reading, the AI business is no longer only a race for compute. It is moving into a broader cost cycle shaped by wafers, electricity, cybersecurity and supply-chain resilience.
Key watchpoint is the duration of shipping disruption
The analyst said the central question now is not whether oil can briefly break above $100, but how long energy transport remains constrained. If low traffic through Hormuz and the Red Sea lasts for several weeks, global inventory buffers could be consumed quickly, hawkish Fed pricing could strengthen, and the period of elevated dollar levels and front-end rates could extend.
Under that setup, the analyst said cross-asset correlations would likely rise, and liquidity and cash management would matter more than chasing high-volatility narratives.