BlockBeats reported on Oct. 20 that a Bitunix analyst sees a clear pricing split across global markets. U.S. September CPI rose 0.6% month over month, while core CPI increased 0.3%, showing inflation pressure has not faded. Even so, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield logged its biggest weekly decline since February.
Oil briefly climbed to $110 a barrel, yet bond yields moved lower instead. In the analyst’s view, that suggests markets are no longer deriving rate expectations from energy prices alone and are now weighing the risk of slower growth against the risk of overly tight monetary policy.
Two readings of the market divergence
The note said there are still two possible explanations for the disconnect.
One is that weakness in AI-related stocks reflects cooling corporate investment and softer future demand. If that is the case, inflation could ease as economic momentum slows, and U.S. Treasuries may regain their safe-haven function.
The other is that the bond rebound was driven mainly by short covering and a correction after oversold conditions. Under that reading, the move would not be enough to conclude that the economic outlook has already weakened.
Hassett also stressed that inflation still needs to be taken seriously. That, in turn, suggests strong consumption could keep price pressure in place for longer, leaving the Federal Reserve with little room to pivot to easing in the near term.
AI asset valuations are starting to split
The analyst said widening valuation gaps in AI assets add to the picture of a market demanding higher returns.
South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice posted 200% year-over-year revenue growth in the first half and turned operating-profit positive. Even so, its stock at one point fell 32% below the offering price on its first trading day. The case suggests that high growth and improving profitability may still fall short of offsetting concerns over valuation and future capital needs.
Longer options hours do not guarantee uniform liquidity
At the same time, the New York Stock Exchange expanded trading hours for options tied to popular stocks and ETFs. The analyst said the move reflects rising demand for cross-time-zone risk management tools.
Still, longer trading hours do not mean liquidity will be equally deep in every session.
What crypto markets should watch
For crypto, the analyst said the main variables remain real interest rates, U.S. dollar funding conditions and changes in risk appetite.
If inflation stays elevated and rates remain restrictive, valuations across risk assets are likely to stay under pressure. If the bond market is instead signaling slower growth, a near-term move toward safety and deleveraging could come before any improvement in liquidity conditions.
The next inflation prints, Federal Reserve policy signals and the ability of AI assets to hold their valuations will determine whether this market divergence is only a temporary position adjustment or the start of a broader repricing in growth and rate expectations.