Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan has revived the case for $1 million Bitcoin, arguing that the path to that level depends far less on short-term market cycles than on how much of the global store-of-value market Bitcoin can absorb over time.
In a report published earlier this week, Hougan said the relevant comparison is the pool of wealth parked in gold, government bonds, and other defensive assets. That market has grown from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. Bitcoin, by his estimate, accounts for only about 4% of that market by value. He acknowledged that a $1 million price sounds extreme, but noted that it would imply about a 14x move from current levels.
The thesis centers on store-of-value market share
Hougan’s framework is straightforward. If Bitcoin were to capture around half of the global store-of-value market under current conditions, its price could approach $1 million in roughly a decade. If that broader market keeps expanding, Bitcoin would need a smaller slice of it to reach the same price. The argument is less about one cycle’s highs and lows and more about whether Bitcoin keeps taking share from traditional wealth-preservation assets.
That helps explain why the $1 million figure keeps resurfacing across the crypto sector. Eric, the son of President Donald Trump, recently reaffirmed his own $1 million Bitcoin call. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in August that Bitcoin could reach that price by 2030.
Broad agreement on direction, less agreement on timing
Other prominent figures have attached very different timelines to the same headline number. Jack Dorsey, the former head of X and co-founder of payments company Block, said Bitcoin could hit $1 million within five years. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes sees that target arriving as early as 2028. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest went even higher, projecting $3.8 million by the end of the decade. Bernstein, in a 2024 forecast, put $1 million in 2033.
CoinDesk asked several market analysts why this number has become such a durable benchmark. Their responses pointed to a common idea: the price itself matters less than what it represents. Quantum Economics founder and market analyst Mati Greenspan said $1 million works as a clean headline and as shorthand for the view that Bitcoin could challenge gold as a store of value. In that framing, the key variable is Bitcoin’s share of global wealth, not the round number alone.
Why the round number keeps returning
Market analyst and AdLunam co-founder Jason Fernandes described the target as more of a psychological milestone than a precise valuation marker. To him, it reflects confidence that Bitcoin may ultimately win the store-of-value argument. At the same time, he said part of the narrative is tied to promotion and distribution: round numbers travel well and align with holder incentives.
Fernandes did not dismiss the thesis as hype. His main warning was about what he called a “static denominator” mistake, where investors value Bitcoin against today’s store-of-value market instead of a much larger future one. Under that view, the $1 million case is not just a catchy price call. It is a long-term valuation framework built on the possibility that the global market for wealth preservation keeps expanding while Bitcoin takes a larger share of it.