Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the market may be asking the wrong question about Bitcoin. In his view, trying to pinpoint the exact bottom matters less than judging how far this cycle can still run, especially for investors looking beyond the next few months.
Hougan made the case while Bitcoin traded near $67,000 after rebounding from multi-month lows. Debate over whether the correction is over has continued, yet he argued that the bigger issue is not where the low sits, but whether Bitcoin still has enough strength to post a much higher cycle top.
Galaxy, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered disagree on the low
To make that point, Hougan reviewed recent work from Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered. Their estimates for the bottom are different, but their broader outlook is not.
Galaxy remains cautious about saying the correction is complete. Its bottom scorecard tracks 13 conditions tied to prior cycle lows, covering valuation, miner stress, and sentiment measures. As of June 8, the firm said only 4 conditions had been fully met, 2 were partially met, and 7 were still unmet. Based on that framework, Galaxy sees a likely bottom range of $40,000 to $46,000.
NYDIG took a more balanced view after comparing the current drawdown with four earlier cycle troughs. It found several similarities to past bottoms, but also noted a key difference: the market has not shown the same degree of capitulation seen in earlier bear markets. That may reflect growing institutional participation and a shift in the usual structure of Bitcoin cycles.
Standard Chartered offered the strongest outlook of the three. The bank recently identified $59,000 as Bitcoin’s likely bottom and kept its $100,000 year-end target. It linked that view to easing ETF-related selling pressure, better macro conditions, and possible catalysts such as a U.S.-Iran agreement and an expected SpaceX public offering.
Hougan argues the shared conclusion matters more
Hougan’s main point is that all three firms arrive at a similar end view: any market bottom should come before Bitcoin reaches a new cycle high. For investors with a longer horizon, he sees that shared expectation as more useful than a precise call on the low.
He also said several structural supports for Bitcoin remain intact, including rising government debt, ongoing demand for inflation hedges, broader institutional adoption, and weaker confidence in centralized financial systems. Regulated investment products have also made Bitcoin easier to access for a wider group of investors, changing the setup from earlier crypto downturns.
Hougan did note risks. Regulatory setbacks and future advances in quantum computing could weigh on Bitcoin’s long-term case. Even so, he said the current market backdrop looks stronger than the conditions seen in past crypto winters.