Bitcoin could trade near $1 million per coin if it captures roughly 17% of the global store-of-value market, according to a memo from Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan. The note does not assign an exact date to that target, but it says the level could be reachable over roughly the next decade if the market expands and Bitcoin keeps gaining share.
The valuation case hinges on the store-of-value market
Hougan frames Bitcoin’s long-term value around its ability to compete with traditional store-of-value assets, especially gold and government bonds. He estimates the global store-of-value market at about $38 trillion today, with Bitcoin representing only a small slice of that total. In his analysis, gold remains the dominant asset in the category and Bitcoin’s clearest rival.
The memo lays out a scenario in which the store-of-value market grows to around $120 trillion over the next decade. If Bitcoin were to capture about 17% of that market, its valuation could rise to nearly $1 million per coin. The argument is centered on market share gains rather than short-term price action.
Spot ETFs and institutional access are central to the thesis
Hougan says the idea looks less far-fetched now because institutional adoption of Bitcoin has accelerated in recent years. A major driver, he argues, has been the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, which opened the asset class to pension funds, financial advisors, and other institutional investors that previously had limited access to crypto markets.
In his view, those developments have helped place Bitcoin alongside established macro assets and traditional stores of value. If institutional allocations keep rising and global demand for non-sovereign assets keeps growing, Bitcoin could steadily take a larger share of the broader store-of-value market.
“As I see it, the base case—that the store-of-value market will continue to grow as it has, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has—leads you to much, much higher prices than we have today,” Hougan wrote.
The memo stops short of calling $1 million a near-term destination. Its case rests on two conditions: continued expansion in the store-of-value market and continued gains in Bitcoin’s share of that market. If both trends hold, the seven-figure price target moves from a distant thought experiment to a scenario Hougan believes is worth modeling.