Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argues in his memo How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million that Bitcoin’s path to a $1 million price is tied not only to market share gains, but also to growth in the broader global store-of-value market.
The current market is just under $38 trillion
Hougan’s framework starts with the size of the store-of-value market and then asks how much of it Bitcoin could realistically capture over time. He estimates the market at just under $38 trillion today, including roughly $36 trillion in gold and about $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. That leaves Bitcoin with a share slightly below 4%.
Under today’s market conditions, Hougan says Bitcoin would need to capture more than 50% of that store-of-value market to reach $1 million per coin. His point is that many investors focus too narrowly on the market as it exists now and miss how much the category itself has grown over time.
Gold’s growth over two decades is central to the thesis
The memo points to the gold market as the clearest example of expansion in wealth-preservation assets. When the first gold ETF launched in the United States in 2004, the total gold market was valued at about $2.5 trillion. That figure has since climbed to nearly $40 trillion, equal to a compound annual growth rate of roughly 13% over the past 20 years.
Hougan links that rise to several macro drivers: growing government debt across major economies, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and long periods of accommodative monetary policy. In his view, those conditions increased demand for assets designed to preserve value over long horizons.
ETF growth and institutional buying broaden access
Hougan also points to changes inside the crypto market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the fastest-growing ETFs in history, and large institutions including the Harvard endowment and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund have added exposure to Bitcoin.
He adds that Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has fallen compared with earlier cycles. That shift has led some professional investors to consider portfolio allocations of around 5%, while earlier recommendations were closer to 1%.
A larger market lowers the share Bitcoin needs
If the store-of-value market expands at a similar pace over the next decade, Hougan estimates it could reach about $121 trillion. In that scenario, Bitcoin would need to capture only about 17% of the market to support a $1 million price, a much lower threshold than under current conditions.
Hougan also notes the risks in that projection. The store-of-value market may not keep growing at the same rate seen in the last two decades, and Bitcoin may fail to gain additional share inside a larger market. He also says the estimate could prove conservative if concerns over government debt and fiat currency debasement push more global capital toward alternative stores of value.