Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the crypto market is not going through a standard pullback. In his latest report, he describes current conditions as a full crypto winter that began in January 2025, putting the present downturn in the same category as the bear markets seen in 2018 and 2022. He links the weakness to excessive leverage built up during the prior cycle and heavy profit-taking by long-term holders.
That view comes as prices remain soft even with several supportive developments across the industry. Institutional participation has expanded, regulation has shown signs of improvement, and broader adoption has continued, yet the market has not responded with sustained upside. Hougan argues that during the deepest phases of a bear market, positive developments often fail to move prices in a meaningful way. His report also points to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which remains near historically elevated fear levels. Volatility is one part of the story. Sentiment is the larger one.
ETF demand softened the blow but did not change the mood
Hougan says institutional buying has partly masked the weakness that started in January 2025. According to the report, exchange-traded funds and digital asset treasuries bought more than 744,000 BTC over the period reviewed, creating substantial support on the demand side. The report adds that without that institutional bid, Bitcoin could have fallen by as much as 60%.
Still, support is not the same as recovery. The report says this wave of buying helped cushion prices, but it did not reverse the broader decline in sentiment. Market behavior remains defined by fatigue and a negative outlook, which Hougan says resembles the later stages of previous crypto winters.
Past cycles suggest a winter can last about 13 months
Historical comparisons are central to the report’s argument. Hougan notes that previous crypto winters lasted roughly 13 months. Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed about a year later. It then peaked again in October 2021 before reaching a low in November 2022. In his view, those patterns show that prolonged weakness is not unusual in crypto and that current conditions fit within a recognizable cycle structure.
He also says today’s atmosphere looks similar to the late-stage exhaustion seen in earlier downturns. The report does not call a precise turning point, but it frames the current mix of tiredness and pessimism as a familiar end-phase setup rather than a fresh collapse.
Report points to four possible recovery drivers
Hougan lists several developments that could help the market recover. They include stronger global economic growth that revives risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign Bitcoin adoption, or simply the passage of time as the cycle runs its course.
The report’s main conclusion is narrow but clear: even with steady ETF and treasury accumulation, the market may still be inside a crypto winter that has not fully ended. Prices have found support. Sentiment has not.