Bitwise, an asset manager with $15 billion under management, says Bitcoin reaching $1 million can be explained through market-share math rather than a simple price forecast. The argument appears in a report titled How Bitcoin Gets to $1 Million, written by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
A $1 million target tied to store-of-value share
Hougan describes Bitcoin as a digital store-of-value asset comparable to gold, built to hold wealth outside the fiat currency and banking system. In his framework, the current global store-of-value market is worth about $38 trillion, including roughly $36 trillion in gold and $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin. That leaves Bitcoin with about 4% of the market today.
The report’s main assumption is straightforward. If the global store-of-value market expands to $121 trillion over the next 10 years, Bitcoin would need to capture only 17% of that total to trade at $1 million per coin. In other words, the projection depends on both Bitcoin gaining share and the market itself becoming much larger.
Gold’s historical growth is used as a benchmark
To support the case for a larger addressable market, Hougan points to the rise in gold’s market capitalization. According to the report, gold grew from about $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. That history is presented as evidence that store-of-value assets, whether traditional or digital, can expand materially over long periods.
ETF growth and institutional ownership matter
The report also highlights Bitcoin’s rising presence in professional portfolios. Hougan says U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have become some of the fastest-growing funds in the market, while holders now range from Harvard’s endowment to sovereign wealth funds. That shift is part of the case for Bitcoin moving deeper into institutional allocation models.
He adds that Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has declined, making allocations of around 5% possible in professional portfolios. The report still sets clear conditions around the thesis: if store-of-value market growth slows or Bitcoin fails to gain additional share, the path to $1 million becomes harder to justify.
Bitwise frames the idea as a long-horizon valuation model, not a short-term price call. The central claim is that capturing roughly one-sixth of the store-of-value market over a decade would be consistent with the historical development of both digital and traditional assets.